Fed decision prediction markets
Read the target measure and effective time in the contract.
A Federal Reserve question can concern a policy decision, the target range or the rate in effect at a particular time. “Rate cut” is not a complete measurement rule. Record whether the contract uses a boundary, a range, a change from a prior level or another specified measure.
The Federal Reserve calendar links meeting statements and related policy documents. Use the document named by the contract and check its effective time. A price observed for one long-dated rate threshold does not establish a probability for a different meeting or a current policy forecast.
Read the measurement rules
- Identify the exact target measure and units.
- Check meeting date versus effective date.
- Separate a threshold contract from a change-in-rate contract.
Markets in the PlayPicks app
PlayPicks app snapshot: Nov 5, 2026, 12:41 UTC. Prices are dated, not live.
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
AI-generated
This summary was created with AI from verified sources and reviewed before publication. See the original source for the full story.
Read the original source: Original event definition and rulesThe source counts easing in units of 25 basis points across 2026. A larger reduction can therefore count as more than one unit rather than one meeting.
Indicative, dated values. Not live prices.
- 0 (0 bps)98%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2035 be above 6.00%?
AI-generated
This summary was created with AI from verified sources and reviewed before publication. See the original source for the full story.
Read the original source: Exact contract rulesThis long-term question tests whether the upper edge of the federal funds target is above 6.00% at the stated year-end observation. It does not ask for an average over the year.
Indicative, dated values. Not live prices.
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2034 be above 1.25%?
AI-generated
This summary was created with AI from verified sources and reviewed before publication. See the original source for the full story.
Read the original source: Kalshi market pageRead the original source: Exact Kalshi contract rulesRead the original source: Federal Reserve policy-rate explanationThis federal funds contract focuses on the upper edge of the Federal Reserve’s policy target at the end of 2034. It does not measure the average interest rate over that year.
Indicative, dated values. Not live prices.
Sources and scope
Checked November 5, 2026.
These links provide background; they do not set the settlement terms of any specific contract.