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Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2034 be above 1.25%?
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This summary was created with AI from verified sources and reviewed before publication. See the original source for the full story.
Read the original source: Kalshi market pageRead the original source: Exact Kalshi contract rulesRead the original source: Federal Reserve policy-rate explanationThis federal funds contract focuses on the upper edge of the Federal Reserve’s policy target at the end of 2034. It does not measure the average interest rate over that year.
Writer: Ian St. ClairEditor: Mike Epifani
Open in PlayPicks Kalshi lists this contract; PlayPicks shows it in the app and does not operate it.
About this market
The rule selects the target range in effect at 11:59 p.m. ET on December 31, 2034, as published by the Federal Reserve. If the Fed uses one target rate instead of a range, that rate substitutes.
The Federal Open Market Committee sets the target range. The contract’s specified upper bound should not be replaced with an observed overnight transaction rate or the range’s midpoint.
- Market source
- Kalshi
- Question format
- Binary question
What determines the result?
- Use the policy target in effect at the specified year-end time.
- Read the upper bound, or the single target if no range exists.
- Separate the threshold from the later expiration and settlement schedule.
Market outcomes
Yes requires the applicable target to exceed 1.25%. A target exactly equal to 1.25% fails the strict “above” test.
Market-implied probabilities are estimates derived from market prices, not verified probabilities or predictions by PlayPicks. Prices may change and do not guarantee outcomes.
YesApp-reported implied probability75.5%
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