Economy prediction markets: closed results

How to research economy prediction markets

Economic contracts may resolve from a policy decision, a statistical release or a formal chronology. The measurement details are part of the question: an index level, a monthly change and a change over a year are different observations. Keep the data publisher and series definition visible.

The Federal Reserve and BLS references provide entry points to policy documents and economic releases. A contract must still name the applicable release, revision treatment and threshold. A later historical value should not silently replace the specific data vintage the contract requires.

Read the measurement rules

• Identify publisher and exact series.
• Record units, adjustment and time window.
• Check first-release versus revised-data treatment.

Understand event-contract resolution · Compare prediction market apps

Explore prediction markets by topic

• Fed decision prediction markets

  Read the target measure and effective time in the contract.

  →

• CPI prediction markets

  Match the index, comparison period and adjustment convention.

  →

• Jobs report prediction markets

  Identify the labor-market measure rather than relying on the headline.

  →

• Recession prediction markets

  Find the contract’s definition and the date of the qualifying determination.

  →

• Gold and silver prediction markets

  Specify the metal, reference price, currency and observation time.

  →