Recession prediction markets
Find the contract’s definition and the date of the qualifying determination.
A recession contract needs a named definition. An economic indicator, an output-growth rule and an announcement by a cycle-dating body can be different triggers. Read whether the question concerns economic activity during a period or a determination announced before a deadline.
NBER maintains a business-cycle chronology; the Federal Reserve explanation discusses why real-time dating is difficult. That background does not choose a contract’s resolution rule. Do not treat a later-dated announcement as though it had been available when an earlier observation was made.
Read the measurement rules
- Identify indicator-based versus announcement-based wording.
- Distinguish the economic period from announcement time.
- Check the named organization and revision provisions.
Markets in the PlayPicks app
PlayPicks app snapshot: Nov 5, 2026, 12:41 UTC. Prices are dated, not live.
No matching contract is available for this topic. Background coverage does not mean a market is currently listed. Browse the market directory.
Sources and scope
Checked November 5, 2026.
These links provide background; they do not set the settlement terms of any specific contract.