Prediction market tools
Explore transparent calculations and selected official calendars, using your own assumptions.
Economic release calendar
Selected official release dates, saved from source checks on November 5, 2026. Dates are schedules, not economic outcomes or market forecasts.
US federal election calendar
Selected scheduled federal general-election dates from the FEC’s cycle table. Voting procedures, local dates and special elections require the relevant election administrator.
Expected value calculator
Explore how an assumed event probability, contract price and fees affect a binary settlement scenario.
Probability normalizer: two outcomes
Normalize two supplied probabilities without confusing a mathematical adjustment with a verified forecast.
Combined contract cost calculator
Compare the total assumed cost of two exhaustive outcomes with their common settlement value.
Price change calculator: earlier and closing price
Measure a later quote against an earlier quote for exactly the same contract and outcome.
Hedge calculator: two-outcome scenarios
See the scenario result in each outcome for quantities you enter. The calculator does not suggest a position.
Kelly criterion model
An educational look at the Kelly formula under explicit assumptions. Outputs are model results, not recommended allocations.
Risk of ruin model
A discrete random-walk model shows how often an assumed process reaches zero or an upper boundary.
Implied probability calculator: price to probability
Convert a supplied binary-contract price into an implied probability under a stated settlement assumption.
Recession probability calculator (Bayes’ rule)
Explore Bayes’ rule using your own assumed prior and signal rates. No economic forecast is supplied.
Fed rate cut probability from market prices
Normalize your two comparable meeting-specific prices; this does not supply a live central-bank forecast.