Implied probability calculator: price to probability
Convert a supplied binary-contract price into an implied probability under a stated settlement assumption.
Enter a scenario
Use one currency and unit throughout. Every field is required; no market or personal financial data is loaded.
Scenario result
Fill in every field and the result appears here as you type. An empty field is missing information, not zero.
Sources and scope
Checked November 5, 2026.
Implied probability calculator: price to probability uses the formulas shown above and assesses no personal financial circumstances.
From a binary contract price to a percentage
This event-probability calculator divides the supplied price by the full settlement value. The result is a price-derived percentage for one specified outcome. It is a description of the price under that settlement convention, rather than an independent prediction of the event.
Hypothetical example: a price of 0.42 and full settlement value of 1 convert to 42%. With the same price and a settlement value of 10, the percentage is 4.2%. A number copied without its settlement unit therefore has a different meaning. Check the currency and whether the input is a bid, ask, last transaction or midpoint before making the conversion.
The calculation does not include transaction fees, quantity or the probability you personally assign to the question. Use the expected-value calculator for an explicit cost scenario. For multiple outcomes, first establish whether they are mutually exclusive; overlapping thresholds cannot be added as if exactly one must occur.