Prediction markets explained: contracts, prices and settlement
Explore prediction-market products, contract rules and research. Understand what a price can tell you and where its limits begin.
On this page
Start with the question
A prediction-market contract is tied to a specified outcome. The wording, deadline and resolution source define what that outcome means. Two contracts about the same headline can settle differently.
PlayPicks brings research and comparison together. Prices are information from an external venue.
Read a market in context
A quoted price is not objective certainty. It depends on the side, quote type, available quantity, fees and the people participating in that market. A last transaction may not be available to another participant now.
- Identify the exact product and source contract.
- Check the quote time and whether it is bid, ask or last.
- Read the settlement and cancellation rules.
- Keep overlapping thresholds separate.
Choose the right research path
Use the app comparison to evaluate product types, the venue comparison to inspect sourced differences, and event research to understand a specific question.
Read the contract in a consistent order
Start with the event and the condition that must be met. Then find the measurement period, the designated source and the determination rules. A price only becomes interpretable once you know what the contract actually asks.
For example, a contract about an initial inflation release and one about the final revised figure ask different questions. A date in a headline may describe the measurement period, the publication date or the trading deadline. Read the rules to identify which one applies.
- Question: what fact would make the specified outcome resolve?
- Source: who publishes the record used to decide it?
- Timing: when is that record measured, published and treated as final?
- Exceptions: what happens if the event changes, the source is delayed or no result is published?
From an event question to a product comparison
An interesting event and a suitable account are separate research tasks. Our topic pages explain measurement questions; product reviews examine the interface, exchange relationship, documented costs and account restrictions. Neither a topic’s popularity nor a recognizable brand substitutes for those checks.
Use the learning guides for unfamiliar terms, then read the full product research. If a price comes from an earlier observation, use its timestamp to understand the record rather than treating it as a current quote.
Sources and citation
PlayPicks analysis is original synthesis. Linked provider documents remain the primary source for their own contract terms.