How prediction-market contract resolution works
Separate event dates, trading close, expected resolution and settlement. Read primary contract rules and dispute conditions.
On this page
Four dates, four different jobs
The event date describes when the underlying event happens. Trading close is when orders stop being accepted. Expected resolution is when a result is anticipated. Settlement records what actually happened under the contract.
These times can differ. A trading close does not prove that a contract has settled, and an expected resolution date is not a completed resolution.
Resolution needs evidence
Read the specified source, observation period and any cancellation or dispute provisions. Preserve the final outcome and evidence at the original event URL. The next edition is a related event with its own identity.
The specified source decides which evidence matters
A widely reported result may still be different from the record named in the contract. Read whether the rules require an official release, a certification, a closing measurement or another specific publication. A report about the event is useful context; it is not automatically the settlement source.
Kalshi’s settlement guidance distinguishes an event becoming known from the market’s final determination. Its help page explains that source publication and the contract’s own timing can delay settlement. Use the actual market rules for the question you are researching.
Sources: Kalshi: market settlement and timing
A proposed result and a final result are different records
Some products use a proposal and dispute process. Polymarket international documents UMA resolution for prediction markets and a separate source for its up-down markets. Do not assume that every product under the same brand uses one mechanism, or transfer international rules to Polymarket US.
When a result is disputed, retain the proposed outcome, the objection and the final decision as separate events. A screenshot taken during a dispute may describe an intermediate state rather than the eventual settlement.
What a useful resolution record contains
Keep the original question with its final evidence so a reader can understand what actually resolved. A deadline passing alone establishes only that a time has passed.
- The exact product, stable contract identifier and outcome label.
- The governing rule and the named source’s result record.
- The source publication time and the platform’s final determination time.
- Any cancellation, dispute, revision or correction that changed the result.
Sources and citation
PlayPicks analysis is original synthesis. Linked provider documents remain the primary source for their own contract terms.