Expected value calculator
Explore how an assumed event probability, contract price and fees affect a binary settlement scenario.
Enter a scenario
Use one currency and unit throughout. Every field is required; no market or personal financial data is loaded.
Scenario result
Fill in every field and the result appears here as you type. An empty field is missing information, not zero.
Sources and scope
Checked November 5, 2026.
Expected value calculator uses the formulas shown above and assesses no personal financial circumstances.
Expected value for a binary event contract
Expected value weights a possible settlement by your assumed probability, then subtracts the purchase price and the fee. It answers a scenario question about your inputs. It cannot establish that the probability is accurate, that the displayed price is available, or that an order will execute.
Hypothetical example: a 50% assumed probability and a settlement value of 1 produce an expected settlement of 0.50. A price of 0.40 and fee of 0.01 leave 0.09 expected value per contract, or 0.90 for ten contracts. An individual result still follows the contract’s settlement conditions; it does not settle at the expected average. Keep all currency amounts in the same unit.
Use this calculator when comparing a specified probability assumption with a contract’s costs. For percentages alone, the event-probability tool has a different purpose: it does not model an entry price or a fee.