Fed rate cut probability from market prices
Normalize your two comparable meeting-specific prices; this does not supply a live central-bank forecast.
Enter a scenario
Use one currency and unit throughout. Every field is required; no market or personal financial data is loaded.
Scenario result
Fill in every field and the result appears here as you type. An empty field is missing information, not zero.
Sources and scope
Checked November 5, 2026.
Fed rate cut probability from market prices uses the formulas shown above and assesses no personal financial circumstances.
Normalize prices for one specified rate decision
The rate-decision tool divides each of two supplied outcome prices by their total. Both inputs must concern the same meeting, rate definition and exhaustive outcome set. A cut at one meeting and no cut at a later meeting do not form the two sides of a single question.
Hypothetical example: prices of 0.30 and 0.80 have a combined total of 1.10. Their normalized shares are about 27.27% and 72.73%. Those percentages describe the relationship between the entered numbers. They are not observed current probabilities, a Federal Reserve forecast or a reproduction of CME FedWatch.
Check whether the contract asks about the size of a target range, its upper bound or a change from a particular starting level. Multiple possible rate moves may require more than a two-outcome description. The official calendar identifies scheduled decisions; the individual contract rules define what would resolve. The form does not supply live prices.