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EconomicsReleases & indicators

CPI prediction markets

Match the index, comparison period and adjustment convention.

Writer: Ian St. ClairEditor: Mike Epifani

CPI research starts with the exact series and comparison. A price-index level, a change from the previous month and a change over twelve months describe different quantities. The broad word “inflation” cannot identify which one a contract measures.

BLS is the primary reference for its CPI data and documentation. Read the contract’s geographic scope, index population, adjustment convention, release month and revision policy. A CPI-U threshold contract stays tied to its original period; its price is not a current inflation forecast.

Read the measurement rules

  • Record the full series name and index population.
  • Distinguish monthly change from year-over-year change.
  • Check seasonal adjustment, release vintage and threshold equality.

Markets in the PlayPicks app

PlayPicks app snapshot: Nov 5, 2026, 12:41 UTC. Prices are dated, not live.

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AI-generated economics artwork from PlayPicks
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EconomicsReleases & indicators
KalshiDated snapshot

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2035 be above 0.0%?

AI-generated

This summary was created with AI from verified sources and reviewed before publication. See the original source for the full story.

Read the original source: Kalshi market pageRead the original source: Exact Kalshi contract rulesRead the original source: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI information

This long-range inflation contract asks whether December 2035’s consumer-price index is higher than a year earlier. A positive year-over-year change is the threshold; the size of the increase above zero is immaterial.

Yes / No questionKalshi

Indicative, dated values. Not live prices.

YesApp-reported implied probability69.5%
Market details
Open in PlayPicks
Older than the app’s freshness window
AI-generated economics artwork from PlayPicks
Image generated using AI.
EconomicsReleases & indicators
KalshiDated snapshot

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2034 be above 5.5%?

AI-generated

This summary was created with AI from verified sources and reviewed before publication. See the original source for the full story.

Read the original source: Kalshi market pageRead the original source: Exact Kalshi contract rulesRead the original source: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI information

This inflation threshold asks whether the twelve-month CPI-U change for December 2034 exceeds 5.5%. It is a specific future release question, distinct from the average inflation experienced throughout that calendar year.

Yes / No questionKalshi

Indicative, dated values. Not live prices.

YesApp-reported implied probability11.5%
Market details
Open in PlayPicks
Older than the app’s freshness window

Sources and scope

Checked November 5, 2026.

These links provide background; they do not set the settlement terms of any specific contract.

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