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Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2034 be above 5.5%?
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This summary was created with AI from verified sources and reviewed before publication. See the original source for the full story.
Read the original source: Kalshi market pageRead the original source: Exact Kalshi contract rulesRead the original source: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI informationThis inflation threshold asks whether the twelve-month CPI-U change for December 2034 exceeds 5.5%. It is a specific future release question, distinct from the average inflation experienced throughout that calendar year.
Writer: Ian St. ClairEditor: Mike Epifani
Open in PlayPicks Kalshi lists this contract; PlayPicks shows it in the app and does not operate it.
About this market
Kalshi specifies the U.S. city average, all-items CPI-U series without seasonal adjustment. The first published December 2034 twelve-month change controls the contract.
The date and series matter as much as the number: a monthly change, a core inflation measure or a later revised figure would answer a different question.
- Market source
- Kalshi
- Question format
- Binary question
What determines the result?
- Find the initially reported December 2034 twelve-month value.
- Check all items and no seasonal adjustment, rather than core or monthly inflation.
- Apply the strict threshold before consulting the separate settlement timetable.
Market outcomes
Yes requires more than 5.5%; exactly 5.5% is insufficient.
Market-implied probabilities are estimates derived from market prices, not verified probabilities or predictions by PlayPicks. Prices may change and do not guarantee outcomes.
YesApp-reported implied probability11.5%
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