Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2035 be above 0.0%?

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Read the original source: Kalshi market page Read the original source: Exact Kalshi contract rules Read the original source: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI information

This long-range inflation contract asks whether December 2035’s consumer-price index is higher than a year earlier. A positive year-over-year change is the threshold; the size of the increase above zero is immaterial.

Writer: Ian St. ClairEditor: Mike Epifani

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About this market

The exact Kalshi contract specifies CPI-U for the U.S. city average, all items, without seasonal adjustment. It uses the first reported December 2035 twelve-month percentage change.

This is not the average inflation rate across the calendar year. A later revision does not replace the initially reported figure under the contract rule.

Market source: Kalshi
Question format: Binary question

What determines the result?

Select the December 2035 twelve-month change, not annual-average inflation.
Use the all-items, not-seasonally-adjusted CPI-U series specified.
Keep the initial release separate from later revisions and settlement timing.

Market outcomes

Yes requires a value strictly above 0.0%. A reported zero or negative change does not satisfy that condition.

Market-implied probabilities are estimates derived from market prices, not verified probabilities or predictions by PlayPicks. Prices may change and do not guarantee outcomes.

YesApp-reported implied probability69.5%