Jobs report prediction markets
Identify the labor-market measure rather than relying on the headline.
An employment headline can refer to payroll employment, unemployment or another labor-market measure. Start by transcribing the series and units in the contract. A net change in payroll jobs is not interchangeable with an unemployment rate or a historical revision.
The BLS Current Employment Statistics program is the primary entry point for its payroll data. If a contract instead names another program or series, use that source. The release period, initial estimate, revision cutoff and adjustment convention must all be checked before comparing observations.
Read the measurement rules
- Identify the survey or statistical program.
- Separate a count, a change and a rate.
- Record initial-release and revision treatment.
Markets in the PlayPicks app
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Sources and scope
Checked November 5, 2026.
These links provide background; they do not set the settlement terms of any specific contract.