Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Odds and Game Preview – July 11

Written By PlayPicks Staff on July 11, 2023

Kelsey Plum will lead the Las Vegas Aces (17-2) into a matchup against the Phoenix Mercury (4-14) one game after scoring 40 points in a 113-89 win over the Lynx.

Dive into the best bets available (based on our computer predictions) in Tuesday’s game, before you place an informed wager on the contest.

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Spread: Mercury (-17.5) to Cover

  • The model favors the Aces by 14.3 points, a much smaller margin than the 17.5-point spread set by DraftKings. Take the Mercury to cover.
  • The Mercury have a 5-12-0 record against the spread this season.
  • Phoenix is winless against the spread (0-1) when playing as at least a 17.5-point underdog.
  • The Aces have a 7-8-0 record against the spread this season.
  • Las Vegas is 3-0 against the spread so far when playing as at least 17.5-point favorites.

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Total: Over 170

  • The model’s predicted total (169.0 points) and the DraftKings set total (170 points) are virtually the same for this contest.
  • The Aces have played eight games with over 170 points scored, their current matchup’s point total, this year.
  • Five of Phoenix’s 17 games this season have had more than 170 total points scored.
  • In the Aces’ 17 games with a set total, seven have hit the over (41.2%).
  • The teams have hit the over in nine of the Mercury’s 17 games with a set total.

Will this matchup go under the total? Check out DraftKings Sportsbook for the latest odds and to get the best signup offer using our link!

Moneyline Winner: Aces (-1800)

  • Prediction: Aces 92, Mercury 77
  • Las Vegas has won 93.3% of its games this season when favored on the moneyline (14-1).

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Aces Leaders

  • A’ja Wilson leads the Aces in scoring and rebounding, tallying 19.6 points and 9.3 rebounds per game.
  • Las Vegas’ best passer is Chelsea Gray, who averages 6.4 assists per game to go with her 14.4 PPG scoring average.
  • The Aces get the most three-point shooting production out of Jackie Young, who makes 2.4 threes per game.
  • The Las Vegas steals leader is Gray, who averages 1.5 takeaways per game, while its blocks leader is Wilson, who compiles 2.2 rejections per contest.

Aces Injuries

Name Game Status Injury
Riquna Williams Out Back

Mercury Leaders

  • Brittney Griner puts up 19.9 points per game and is the top scorer for the Mercury.
  • Brianna Turner has a stat line of 5.9 rebounds, 3.1 points and 1.4 assists per game for Phoenix to take the top rebound spot on the team. Sug Sutton holds the top spot for assists with 5.2 per game, adding 9.0 points and 2.3 rebounds per matchup.
  • Diana Taurasi knocks down 2.1 three-pointers per game, the most on the Mercury.
  • Moriah Jefferson (1.1 steals per game) is the steal leader for Phoenix while Griner (2.0 blocks per game) is the block leader.

Mercury Injuries

Name Game Status Injury
Skylar Diggins-Smith Out Personal

All stats in this article refer to the 2023 regular season.

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