Premier League Picks | EPL Betting Odds, Predictions For Matchweek 18

Premier League Picks | EPL Betting Odds, Predictions For Matchweek 18

January 13, 2021

The English Premier League is arguably the best club soccer league on the planet and an exciting way to prelude NFL Sundays with most games kicking off in early time slots for American audiences.

There are ample betting opportunities available for EPL games with full odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook. This article will help familiarize you with the details of betting soccer and provide advice to help you get ahead of the field with your wagers.

We’ll provide updated odds each week and pick our best bets to consider for the upcoming slate.

EPL odds

This week’s best bets

Leicester City vs. Southampton

Leicester City and Southampton are both low-scoring sides that average under 2 goals per game, respectively. LC is dependent on striker Jamie Vardy to produce offense, but James Maddison has emerged as a great secondary scorer with a penchant for converting off set pieces. Maddison is getting friendly +800 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook to be either the First Goal Scorer or Last Goal Scorer in this match. That generates great value in a game that could certainly wind up as a draw. Take Leicester City (-118) to win as a conservative option and take a flier on Maddison’s props for a potential big payout.

The Pick: Leicester City (-118 or better)
Secondary Pick: James Maddison First Goal Scorer (+800)

Aston Villa vs. Everton

Everton is hot with 5 wins over their last 6 matches and they’ve mostly done it with defense. Villa is a hard team to shut out with an average of 3.7 goals per game at their home stadium in Birmingham. The Over has hit in 5 of Villa’s last 7 home games and Everton is quite competitive with a 6-1-2 record in away fixtures. Both of these teams average around 3 goals per game and we expect both to score, with at least 3 goals coming to get it Over the 2.5-goal implied total.

The Pick: Over 2.5 goals or Both Teams to Score (-177) 

Liverpool vs. Manchester United

Liverpool has not been blowing teams away this season and they’re now 9-5-2 when listed as favorites. A draw is a likely scenario against a tough United side that has forced 2 of their last 3 matches Under the implied total. Liverpool has seen their last 3 matches go Under and has conceded just 1 goal over their last 3 meetings with United.

The Pick: Under 2.5 or better

Best EPL betting apps

Most sportsbooks offer action on the Premier League. These are the three of the top options:

DraftKings Sportsbook

The Daily Fantasy Sports titan expanded to online sports betting in 2018 and offers arguably the widest range of betting options and odds boosts on the market. DraftKings Sportsbook is legal and available in Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Iowa, and Indiana, with several states set to pass legislation that will legalize online sportsbooks in the near future. If DK Sportsbook isn’t yet legal in your state, you can still use the user-friendly APP as a reference for odds and play EPL DFS contests at DraftKings.

First time users are eligible for up to $1,025 in deposit bonuses at DK. There is a $25 bonus for signing up with a 20% matched bonus for the initial deposit. Then, bettors can place a risk-free wager up to $500!

For the EPL, DK offers more than just game lines. There are player and game propositions, bets on fouls, corners, and a Futures market for players and teams. Those futures markets include which teams will be relegated to the lower league and which teams will finish in the Top 4 to qualify for the prestigious UEFA Champions League.

FanDuel Sportsbook

Soon after DK made the jump to online sports betting, FanDuel followed suit with an equally impressive APP. FanDuel Sportsbook is legal in the same states listed above and there are EPL DFS contests offered on the platform for those who don’t live in sports with legalized gambling.

New FanDuel users also receive a $500 risk-free bet that is refunded as site credit if unsuccessful. The sportsbook also offers Multi-Sport Parlay Insurance that can refund part of a parlay wager if some of the picks are successful. FanDuel DFS players receive a loyalty boost for signing up and the platform offers daily Odds Boosts to inspire more action.

While FanDuel Sportsbook doesn’t offer the same variety of action as DK does for the EPL, it covers every game and every league down to the lower two levels of the English Football. FanDuel offers odds for just about every professional soccer league in the world and is accepting bets on the UEFA Champions League, which pits the best teams from each league into an international tournament.

BetMGM Sportsbook

Coinciding with a live sportsbook in Atlantic City, New Jersey, BetMGM Sportsbook offers an online platform for residents of Colorado, New Jersey, Nevada, West Virginia and Indiana, with plans to launch in Michigan, Tennessee, and Virginia in the near future. Like its competitors, BetMGM offers an initial deposit bonus and a $500 risk-free bet for new users.

How to bet Soccer and Win

Moneyline picks: The Moneyline functions differently in soccer than in other sports because you can pick a side to win, or choose a tie. For this reason, odds are usually more favorable any time two reasonably equal sides are matched up. When Manchester United and Chelsea play, both teams are getting plus odds, with Chelsea listed at +175 and a tie given +260 odds. So a $10 bet on Chelsea would profit $17.50 if they win, and a $10 bet on a tie would profit $26 if the sides draw.

Over/Under picks: Often referred to as a “Total Goals” wager, this is an option for bettors to take the Over or Under on an implied total of combined goals. These lines will be set at half a goal to avoid a “push” so if the Aston Villa-Leeds game is implied to have 2.5 goals, betting the Over would be successful if the sides combine for 3 or more goals. If the Under is getting -139 odds, that would indicate oddsmakers think a low-scoring game is more likely. A $10 bet on the Under would earn a return of $17.19 if successful.

Goal Spread picks: Some books will offer a form of a point spread known as the “Asian Handicap” which effectively gives the underdog a head start on the scoring. If Liverpool is a big favorite on the moneyline against a team such as West Ham, the spread might be set at Liverpool (-1.5), so any bettor backing Liverpool on the spread would need them to win by 2 or more goals. Betting the spread provides closer to even odds than the moneyline, which in this case would be skewed heavily towards the favorite.

Proposition bets: There are several team propositions to take in soccer matches. There are odds on the exact score and odds on whether both teams will score at least one goal. In addition, there is a type of parlay called a “Double Chance” that gives bettors the opportunity to bet on a winner and/or a tie. The odds become much less favorable in this instance, with something like -275 odds to take Aston Villa or a tie in an implied close match with Leeds.

There are also player propositions to take in each game, such as who will score the first goal of the match and whether a player will score at any point. Odds can be offered on whether a specific player, or any player, will get a red card. DK Sportsbook offers a wide range of player props that include whether a player will score from outside the penalty box, will score in stoppage time, or even which foot they may use to score.

Futures bets: The most tantalizing bets in soccer are season-long bets known as futures.
In 2016, a Leicester City fan placed a bet (of 50 pounds) on the club to win the EPL at 5000-1 odds and cashed out for 72,000 pounds, but could have made 250,000 pounds had he let it ride through the season.

Since there is no salary cap and the richest clubs can simply buy the best players in the world, upsets like that rarely occur. There is a short list of teams with a legitimate shot to win the league, but there is also a Futures market for which teams will finish in the Top 4 and which of the league’s 20 teams will be relegated after finishing in the bottom 3.

Live betting: Betting a soccer match in progress is an intriguing option that works to the advantage of a more experienced viewer. With teams likely to be tied or within one goal early in the match, it’s up to the viewer to decide which team has had the better of the play and will likely break through for a favorable result.

Advanced soccer betting strategies

The first thing to notice about EPL betting in the current landscape is a change in strategy and circumstance. With no fans due to the coronavirus pandemic, and teams shaking off the rust in terms of their defensive cohesion, goals have skyrocketed this season. The average EPL game in 2020 is featuring 3.79 goals, well up from the usual 2.72 goals per game average.

Now, oddsmakers are adjusting to this trend, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t an advantage in terms of finding good live odds. A great strategy for in-game betting is to take the Over on 1.5 total goals when a game sits at 1-0 or even 0-0 over the first 50 minutes or so. A high percentage of goals are scored down the stretch when teams are tired, the losing side is pressing, and the leading side is ready to counter.

More generally, advanced betting is about finding value by fading the public and backing an undesirable squad. Glamorous teams such as Manchester City and Liverpool may not be at risk to lose against a side facing relegation, but those desperate squads are capable of covering a 1.5-goal spread.

It also pays to analyze a club’s overall schedule. Many of the top teams have responsibilities outside their league including Europa and Champions League matches. Therefore, they might rest key players against weak league opponents, or simply fall into a trap by overlooking the underdog.

In the EPL, it generally makes sense to avoid matches with huge favorites because there is no value on either side. But anytime there are two evenly matched sides that are getting plus odds on the moneyline, it’s worth considering which team has the edge and gambling on an outright win. Teams have been very aggressive this season playing for 3 points.

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