Sharp money in prediction markets: check the evidence
Inspect the evidence needed before attaching an expertise label to activity. Volume, a large position or a later price move does not establish that a participant is informed.
What participant evidence would be needed?
A price history records observations about a market. It does not identify a participant’s knowledge, expertise or intention. A large change, a large position or a later correct outcome cannot by itself establish that informed traders caused the activity.
A defensible participant analysis would need independently defined identities or cohorts, a documented classification method, a time period and observations connected to that method. It would also need to distinguish information available before an event from explanations formed after the result. None of those missing inputs can be inferred from this price-series form.
This view consequently keeps the evidence question visible without assigning an expertise label or presenting a participant ranking. Use movers for the narrower task of comparing observed price changes, or divergence for qualifying cross-venue quotes. Keeping those tasks separate prevents a descriptive calculation from becoming an unsupported claim about who traded or why a price changed.
A label needs independent evidence
A transaction record can show that activity happened. It does not establish the participant’s information, skill, intent or later performance. No verified participant taxonomy is connected to this view, so no account or cohort is characterized as informed.
Run the price series without a trader label
Paste your own observations as JSON, in the format set out on the price research page.
This page has no live price data. Paste your own price series to analyze it.
Sources and scope
Checked November 5, 2026.