Prediction market price differences across venues

Check a cross-venue price difference

Divergence compares contemporaneous, same-kind observations across venues. The first requirement is contract equivalence: the same event, outcome, threshold, measurement period and resolution conditions. A shared headline is only a reason to investigate, not evidence that two prices concern the same claim.

Next check the age of each observation against your chosen limit. Comparing a recent ask with an older last transaction combines a timing difference with a quote-type difference. Record the venue, timestamp, unit and source for both sides so another reader can reproduce the gap. Unmatched observations stay outside the comparison.

A qualifying gap describes the supplied quotes. It does not establish that a trade could execute, the available size or the result after costs. Fees, order-book depth, transfer restrictions and settlement differences can matter to a transaction while remaining unmeasured here. Use the platform-fee comparison and contract-matching guide to identify those separate research tasks.

Compare two venues’ quotes

Paste your own observations as JSON, in the format set out on the price research page.

Sources and scope

• CFTC: contract definitions and source information

Checked November 5, 2026.