Who controls
Congress?
Which parties will control the House and Senate after the 2026 US midterm elections?
The election is on November 3, 2026. Congressional-control contracts can use different tests for control. This contract comparison explains those differences. The source record does not establish a final result or current market prices.
On this page
These sources have not passed an equivalence review. No cross-venue lowest-price claim, combined probability or live quote is shown.
What does “control” mean?
The Kalshi combination incorporates rules that identify control through the parties of the House Speaker and Senate President Pro Tempore. The related Polymarket international description starts with voting-seat majorities and uses the vice presidency to break a Senate tie, with leadership fallbacks where the result remains ambiguous. A similar title therefore does not establish the same settlement test.
The Polymarket source also displays an Other outcome, while the checked Kalshi page lists four party combinations. The complete outcome relationship and exceptional cases require review. These sources are research references, not an approved equivalent pair; no cross-venue price ranking or forced total of 100% is justified.
Election day, a source page’s displayed end date, scheduled trading close and final settlement are different facts. The Kalshi rules permit early expiration and review contingencies. Preserve this event’s identity and its resolution evidence when the result is known rather than replacing it with a later election.
Contract and source comparison
| Source and product | Definition and primary evidence | Price information |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi KalshiEX, LLC KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD | Every component must satisfy its incorporated rule; a failed or impossible component makes the combination fail. The CONTROL terms use the Speaker’s party and President Pro Tempore’s party at expiry, with congress.gov as the source, independent-member caucusing and conditional accelerated resolution. A winning contract settles at USD 1. Complete exceptions and rule versions still require named review. | Bid / ask / last: unavailable Currency / winning settlement: USD / $1 Fees, spread, depth, volume and quote time: unavailable |
| Polymarket international Adventure One QSS, Inc. — international product; not Polymarket US | The source description uses chamber voting-seat majorities, a vice-presidency tie-break for the Senate, leadership fallbacks for ambiguity, an October 31 election-schedule cutoff and runoff handling. Stable provider event, contract and outcome IDs have not been established, so this remains a related source reference rather than a normalized event or matched contract. | Bid / ask / last: unavailable Currency / settlement: not established by these source records Fees, spread, depth, volume and quote time: unavailable |
Exact source labels, without normalization
Kalshi
- Democrats sweep
- D-House, R-Senate
- Republicans sweep
- R-House, D-Senate
These are the event page’s combination labels. Each combination is a separate Yes/No contract; only the selected Democrats sweep contract ID was established. They are not normalized outcome IDs for that one contract.
Polymarket international
- Democrats Sweep
- D Senate, R House
- R Senate, D House
- Republicans Sweep
- Other
The full relationship between outcomes is unreviewed. We do not force their prices to total 100%.
Price history
No recorded prices available
No price history is available for this page yet. We only chart prices we have recorded, and never fill in gaps.
| Observation time | Venue / outcome | Quote type / price |
|---|---|---|
| No recorded observations. | ||
Event, close and settlement
- Election date
- November 3, 2026
- Current market status
- Unconfirmed
- Verified trading-close timestamp
- Unavailable
- Verified expected-resolution timestamp
- Unavailable
- Settlement status / final outcome
- Unconfirmed / unavailable
- Research scope
- Comparison of contract definitions; no settled result asserted
The checked Kalshi page displayed scheduled close and expected expiration of February 1, 2027 at 10:00 ET, and latest expiration of February 8, 2027 at 10:00 ET. Early expiration is permitted. These source schedule labels are not verified current timestamps or a guaranteed settlement date.
The page displayed an end date of November 3, 2026. That label does not establish a trading-close time or a guaranteed resolution date.
Sources and citation
Sources checked: October 29, 2026.
- Congress Balance of Power
- Combination contract terms
- Congressional control contract terms
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Data terms of use
- International product terms
PlayPicks analysis is original synthesis. Linked provider documents remain the primary source for their own contract terms.
Contract terms, source timestamps, and product limits determine what a comparison can establish. See our editorial policy and linked original sources.