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World & GeopoliticsApp snapshot

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

AI-generated

This summary was created with AI from verified sources and reviewed before publication. See the original source for the full story.

Read the original source: Polymarket international contract rules

This appointment market follows the first qualifying defense minister in the government formed after Israel’s 2026 Knesset election. Temporary service and later replacements are treated differently from the initial qualifying appointment.

Writer: Ian St. ClairEditor: Mike Epifani
Open in PlayPicks

Polymarket international lists this contract; PlayPicks shows it in the app and does not operate it.

About this market

The rules require the minister to assume office with the specified Knesset approval. Interim and caretaker ministers are excluded; a later replacement does not change an already qualifying result.

If no qualifying minister takes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 p.m. ET, the deadline outcome applies. The contract also contains special treatment for renamed or divided successor portfolios.

Market source
Polymarket international
Question format
Multiple outcome labels

What determines the result?

  • Confirm the first government formed after the specified election.
  • Verify assumption of office and Knesset approval, excluding caretaker service.
  • Check successor-portfolio rules and the February 2027 cutoff.

Market outcomes

Named people are potential qualifying appointees. “No Next Minister by Feb 28” is a deadline condition, not a claim about who currently holds office.

Market-implied probabilities are estimates derived from market prices, not verified probabilities or predictions by PlayPicks. Prices may change and do not guarantee outcomes.

Outcomes may overlap; percentages are not normalized.

  • No Next Minister by Feb 2848%
  • Naftali Bennett6%
  • Avigdor Lieberman5%
  • Israel Katz11%
  • Bezalel Smotrich0%
  • Ofer Winter1%
  • Itamar Ben Gvir5%
  • Yair Lapid1%
  • Yoram Cohen1%
  • Gadi Eizenkot17%
  • Elazar Stern1%
  • Yair Golan0%
  • Benjamin Netanyahu1%
  • Amir Ohana0%
  • Benny Gantz0%
  • Yoaz Hendel0%
  • Moshe Feiglin3%
  • Eli Cohen0%
  • Matan Kahana0%

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Important information

In the United States, certain event contracts are offered through Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) subject to oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Regulatory arrangements and product availability differ between platforms and jurisdictions. CFTC oversight does not constitute approval or endorsement of any particular contract. Event contracts are derivatives products, not sports betting or gambling products, and are not licensed by any state gaming or gambling regulator.

Trading event contracts involves substantial risk of loss. You may lose some or all of the funds you use to trade. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.

Nothing on this page constitutes investment, trading, or legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any contract. Content is for general informational purposes only.