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Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026

AI-generated

This summary was created with AI from verified sources and reviewed before publication. See the original source for the full story.

Read the original source: Original event definition and rules

This contract compares percentage price changes across the calendar year. It does not compare today’s prices or the absolute dollar prices of three different assets.

Writer: Ian St. ClairEditor: Mike Epifani
Open in PlayPicks

Polymarket international lists this contract; PlayPicks shows it in the app and does not operate it.

About this market

The rules identify distinct closing-price references for Bitcoin, gold futures and the S&P 500 index. They use price return rather than a total-return measure and specify a tie rule.

Market source
Polymarket international
Question format
Multiple outcome labels

What determines the result?

  • Use the correct beginning and ending observations for each asset.
  • Keep price return separate from distributions and total return.
  • Apply the stated tie and missing-price provisions.

Market outcomes

Each asset label represents the strongest performance under those particular measurement rules. The app’s recorded values are separate from the current source screen.

Market-implied probabilities are estimates derived from market prices, not verified probabilities or predictions by PlayPicks. Prices may change and do not guarantee outcomes.

Outcomes may overlap; percentages are not normalized.

  • S&P 50085%
  • Bitcoin7%
  • Gold8%

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Important information

In the United States, certain event contracts are offered through Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) subject to oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Regulatory arrangements and product availability differ between platforms and jurisdictions. CFTC oversight does not constitute approval or endorsement of any particular contract. Event contracts are derivatives products, not sports betting or gambling products, and are not licensed by any state gaming or gambling regulator.

Trading event contracts involves substantial risk of loss. You may lose some or all of the funds you use to trade. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.

Nothing on this page constitutes investment, trading, or legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any contract. Content is for general informational purposes only.