The Miami Heat will look to overcome the odds as 7.5-point underdogs in a decisive Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on Monday, tipping off at 8:30 PM ET on TNT. The series is tied 3-3. The matchup has an over/under set at 204 points.
Our computer predictions below will help you pick what are the best bets available for Monday’s game.
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Spread: Celtics (-7.5) to Cover
- The DraftKings line for this game has the Celtics favored by 7.5, while the model predicts they’ll win by slightly more (8.7 points).
- So far this season, Boston has put together a 45-36-1 record against the spread.
- When playing as at least 7.5-point favorites this season, the Celtics have an ATS record of 19-18.
- Miami’s ATS record is 30-49-3 this year.
- The Heat have covered the spread twice when an underdog by 7.5 points or more this season (in four opportunities).
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Total: Over 204
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (223.7 points) considerably higher than the DraftKings over/under (204 points). Bet on the over.
- Boston and its opponent have broken the 204-point mark 76 times this year.
- There have been 68 Miami’s games this year with more than 204 points scored.
- The Celtics and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 39 out of 82 times this season.
- Heat games have hit the over 41 out of 82 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Celtics (-280)
- Prediction: Celtics 116, Heat 107
- This season, Boston has won 51 out of the 72 games, or 70.8%, in which it has been favored.
- Miami has won in seven, or 30.4%, of the 23 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
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Derrick White Points Prop: Under 13.5
- Derrick White puts up 12.4 points, 3.9 assists and 3.6 boards per game.
- The 12.4 points White scores per game are 1.1 less than his over/under on Monday.
- White has had a points prop in 65 games this season, and has hit the over 35 times.
- In 2022-23, the Heat are worst in the league on offense (109.5 points scored per game) but second-best defensively (109.8 points allowed).
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Max Strus Points Prop: Under 9.5
- The Heat are getting 11.5 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game from Max Strus this season.
- The 9.5-point total set for Strus on Monday is 2.0 less than his season scoring average.
- Strus has had 52 chances to hit the over on a point prop this season and came through 25 times.
- It’s been a dominant stretch for the Celtics, who are scoring 117.9 points per game (fourth-best in NBA) and ceding 111.4 points per contest (fourth-best).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2022-23 regular season.
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