The Boston Celtics bring a 2-0 series record into Game 3 of the NBA Finals. The Mavericks enter the matchup as favorites by 3 points for the game, which airs on ABC at 8:30 PM ET. The matchup’s over/under is 214.5.
Before you place an informed wager on the contest, take a look at the best bets available for Wednesday’s game according to our computer predictions.
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Spread: Celtics (+3) to Cover
- The data strongly suggests betting on the Celtics in this one. The model favors them while DraftKings has the Mavericks favored and the difference between the two is 8.5 points.
- Boston is 42-36-4 ATS this year.
- The Celtics have covered the spread once this season (1-1 ATS) when playing as at least 3-point underdogs.
- Dallas has a 48-34-0 record against the spread this season.
- The Mavericks are 27-15 ATS this season when playing as at least 3-point favorites.
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Total: Over 214.5
- The DraftKings point total for this matchup is more than two possessions lower (13.5 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- Dallas’ games have had more than 214.5 points scored on 68 occasions this season.
- Boston’s games have had over 214.5 points 66 times this season.
- A total of 36 out of the Mavericks’ 82 games this season have hit the over.
- The Celtics and their opponents have combined to hit the over 43 out of 82 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Celtics (+124)
- Prediction: Celtics 117, Mavericks 111
- Dallas has won 37, or 75.5%, of the 49 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Boston has been chosen as underdogs in three games this year and has walked away with the win one time (33.3%) in those games.
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Luka Doncic Points Prop: Under 32.5
- Luka Doncic posts 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists per contest, shooting 48.7% from the floor and 38.2% from beyond the arc with 4.1 made 3-pointers per contest (second in league).
- The 32.5 points prop total set for Doncic on Wednesday is 1.4 fewer points than his season scoring average (33.9).
- Doncic is 39-for-75 at scoring more than his points prop total this season.
- On offense, the Celtics are the second-best team in the league (120.6 points per game). On defense, they are fifth-best (109.2 points allowed per game).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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