The Boston Celtics are favored by 7 points heading into a decisive Game 5 of the NBA Finals against the Dallas Mavericks at TD Garden on Monday, beginning at 8:30 PM ET on ABC. The Celtics are currently up 3-1 in the series. The matchup has an over/under of 210.5 points.
Trying to gain an edge on Monday’s game? See the best bets available for this matchup (based on our computer predictions) in the article below.
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Spread: Celtics (-7) to Cover
- The DraftKings line for this game has the Celtics favored by seven, while the model predicts they’ll win by considerably more (10.6 points). Put your money on the Celtics.
- Boston’s ATS record is 42-36-4 this season.
- The Celtics have an ATS record of 29-23-3 when playing as at least 7-point favorites this season.
- Dallas’ ATS record is 48-34-0 this season.
- The Mavericks have been an underdog by 7 points or more seven times this season, and covered the spread in two of those contests.
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Total: Over 210.5
- The DraftKings point total for this matchup is more than two possessions lower (17.0 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- A total of 73 times so far this year, Boston and its opponent have combined to score more than 210.5 points.
- Dallas’ games have finished with over 210.5 points scored 70 times this year.
- In the Celtics’ 82 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 43 times.
- The Mavericks and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 36 out of 82 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Celtics (-270)
- Prediction: Celtics 119, Mavericks 108
- Boston has won 63, or 79.7%, of the 79 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Dallas has been chosen as underdogs in 31 games this year and has walked away with the win 12 times (38.7%) in those games.
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Jayson Tatum Rebounds Prop: Over 9.5
- Jayson Tatum puts up 26.9 points, 8.1 boards and 4.9 assists per game, shooting 47.1% from the floor and 37.6% from beyond the arc with 3.1 made 3-pointers per game (seventh in league).
- He has grabbed 8.1 rebounds per game, 1.4 fewer than his prop bet for Monday’s game (9.5).
- Oddsmakers have listed a rebound total for him 77 times this season, and he has hit the over in 29 of those games.
- In 2023-24, the Mavericks are 21st in the league in rebounds (42.9 per game) and 25th in rebounds conceded (45.1).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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