The Los Angeles Lakers take a 2-1 series record into Game 4 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs. The Lakers enter the matchup as favorites by 2.5 points for the game, which will be broadcast on TNT at 10:00 PM ET. The matchup’s over/under is set at 228.
Our computer predictions below will help you pick what are the best bets available for Monday’s game.
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Spread: Lakers (-2.5) to Cover
- The DraftKings line for this matchup is within 0.3 points of the model. Stay away from this one.
- So far this season, Los Angeles has compiled a 40-40-2 record against the spread.
- The Lakers have covered the spread 13 times this season (13-13 ATS) when playing as at least 2.5-point favorites.
- Golden State has gone 39-43-0 ATS this season.
- When playing as at least 2.5-point underdogs this year, the Warriors have an ATS record of 9-10.
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Total: Over 228
- The model projects a total 5.7 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game.
- A total of 51 times so far this season, Los Angeles and its opponent have combined to score more than 228 points.
- Golden State’s games have finished with over 228 points scored 60 times this year.
- In the Lakers’ 82 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 43 times.
- The Warriors and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 43 out of 82 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: Lakers (-140)
- Prediction: Lakers 118, Warriors 115
- Los Angeles has been the favorite in 31 games this season and won 20 (64.5%) of those contests.
- Golden State has been victorious in seven, or 29.2%, of the 24 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.
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D’Angelo Russell Points Prop: Over 16.5
- D’Angelo Russell puts up 17.8 points, 6.2 assists and 3.0 boards per contest.
- Russell is averaging 17.8 points in the 2022-23 season, 1.3 more than Monday’s over/under.
- This season Russell is 33-for-72 at hitting the over on the over/under set for him in terms of points.
- The Warriors are the second-best squad in the NBA in points scored (118.9 per game) and 21st in points conceded (117.1).
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Klay Thompson Rebounds Prop: Over 4.5
- Klay Thompson gives the Warriors 21.9 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game while posting 0.7 steals and 0.4 blocked shots.
- His rebounding average — 4.1 per game — is 0.4 less than his prop bet for Monday’s game (4.5).
- Sportsbooks have set a rebound total for him 68 times this season, and he has hit the over in 37 of those games.
- The Lakers are averaging 45.7 boards per game (sixth-ranked in league). They are giving up 44.9 rebounds per contest (25th-ranked).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2022-23 regular season.
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