The Denver Nuggets take a 2-1 lead into Game 4 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs. The Suns enter the matchup as favorites by 1.5 points for the game, which will be broadcast on TNT at 8:00 PM ET. The matchup has an over/under of 227.5.
Our computer predictions for Sunday’s game may help you make an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Nuggets (+1.5) to Cover
- The line for this game set by DraftKings and the model’s prediction are essentially the same (within 0.5 points of each other).
- So far this season, Denver has put together a 44-37-1 record against the spread.
- When playing as at least 1.5-point underdogs this year, the Nuggets have an ATS record of 11-6.
- Phoenix is 42-39-1 ATS this season.
- The Suns have an ATS record of 26-16-1 when playing as at least 1.5-point favorites this season.
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Total: Under 227.5
- The DraftKings total for this game, 227.5 points, and the model’s projected total, 226.5 points, are only 1.0 point apart.
- Phoenix’s games have had more than 227.5 points scored on 41 occasions this year.
- Denver’s games have finished with over 227.5 points scored 40 times this year.
- Suns games have gone over the point total 41 out of 82 times this season.
- A total of 37 Nuggets games this season have gone over the point total.
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Moneyline Winner: Suns (-125)
- Prediction: Suns 114, Nuggets 113
- This season, Phoenix has won 36 out of the 50 games, or 72%, in which it has been favored.
- Denver has been victorious in nine, or 45%, of the 20 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.
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Kevin Durant Rebounds Prop: Under 8.5
- Kevin Durant puts up 29.1 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists per contest. At the other end, he averages 0.7 steals and 1.4 blocks.
- Durant averages 1.8 fewer rebounds than his over/under on Sunday (which is 8.5).
- He has grabbed more rebounds than his over/under in 22 of his 46 games with that prop available this season.
- The Nuggets are 18th in the NBA in rebounds per game (43.0) and best in rebounds allowed (40.8).
Check out all available player props for Kevin Durant and other Suns players in this matchup and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.
Aaron Gordon Points Prop: Under 14.5
- Aaron Gordon gets the Nuggets 16.3 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game while putting up 0.8 steals and 0.8 blocked shots.
- Gordon is scoring 16.3 points per game, 1.8 higher than Sunday’s over/under.
- Gordon has hit the points prop over at a 26-for-63 clip this season.
- With 113.6 points per game on offense, the Suns are 17th in the NBA. At the other end of the court, they allow 111.6 points per contest, which ranks sixth in the league.
Check out the prop bets available for Aaron Gordon and other Nuggets players in this matchup and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.
All stats in this article refer to the 2022-23 regular season.
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