The Boston Celtics are favored by 1.5 points ahead of Game 4 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Philadelphia 76ers at Wells Fargo Center on Sunday, starting at 3:30 PM ET on ESPN. The Celtics are currently up 2-1 in the series. The matchup has an over/under set at 214 points.
Our computer predictions below will help you decide what are the best bets available for Sunday’s game.
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Spread: 76ers (+1.5) to Cover
- While DraftKings has the Celtics winning by 1.5, the model has the 76ers taking home the victory, though the margin is fairly small (1.7 points). Lean toward taking the 76ers.
- Philadelphia is 47-34-1 against the spread this season.
- The 76ers have been an underdog by 1.5 points or more 19 times this season, and covered the spread in 11 of those games.
- Boston is 45-36-1 ATS this season.
- The Celtics have an ATS record of 34-35-1 when playing as at least 1.5-point favorites this season.
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Total: Over 214
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (227.0 points) much higher than the DraftKings over/under (214 points). Bet on the over.
- Boston and its opponent have broken the 214-point mark 65 times this year.
- Philadelphia’s games have had over 214 points 57 times this season.
- The Celtics and their opponents have combined to hit the over 39 out of 82 times this season.
- A total of 45 76ers games this year have gone over the point total.
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Moneyline Winner: 76ers (+100)
- Prediction: 76ers 114, Celtics 113
- Boston has won 51, or 70.8%, of the 72 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Philadelphia has been chosen as underdogs in 27 games this year and has walked away with the win 13 times (48.1%) in those games.
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Jayson Tatum Rebounds Prop: Under 9.5
- Jayson Tatum posts 30.1 points, 4.6 assists and 8.8 rebounds per contest.
- Tatum has collected 8.8 rebounds per game, 0.7 less than his prop bet for Sunday’s game (9.5).
- He has gone over his rebound total in 42 of 74 games with a prop so far this season.
- On the boards, the 76ers are fifth-worst in the league in rebounds (40.9 per game). But they are second-best in rebounds conceded (41.2 per game).
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Joel Embiid Points Prop: Under 27.5
- Joel Embiid delivers 33.1 points, 10.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game for the 76ers.
- The 33.1 points Embiid scores per game are 5.6 more than his prop total on Sunday.
- Embiid has gone over 32 times on a points prop this season (in 65 opportunities).
- The Celtics have been getting things done at both ends of the court this year, ranking fourth-best in the NBA in points per game (117.9) and fourth-best in points allowed per game (111.4).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2022-23 regular season.
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