The Los Angeles Lakers are favored by 3.5 points heading into Game 3 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Golden State Warriors at Crypto.com Arena on Saturday, starting at 8:30 PM ET on ABC. The series is even 1-1. The matchup’s over/under is 229.
Our computer predictions for Saturday’s game will help you make an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Warriors (+3.5) to Cover
- The model favors the Lakers by 1.9 points, just 1.6 less than the 3.5-point spread set by DraftKings.
- Golden State has a 39-43-0 record against the spread this season.
- The Warriors have an ATS record of 7-7 when playing as at least 3.5-point underdogs this year.
- Los Angeles’ ATS record is 40-40-2 this season.
- The Lakers have been favored by 3.5 points or more 22 times this season, and covered the spread in 13 of those contests.
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Total: Over 229
- In this game, the model projects a total (233.8 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (229 points).
- Los Angeles and its opponent have broken the 229-point mark 50 times this season.
- So far this season, 59 Golden State’s games have featured over 229 points scored.
- The Lakers and their opponents have combined to hit the over 43 out of 82 times this season.
- So far this season, 43 out of the Warriors’ 82 games with an over/under have hit the over.
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Moneyline Winner: Lakers (-165)
- Prediction: Lakers 118, Warriors 116
- Los Angeles has entered the game as favorites 31 times this season and won 20, or 64.5%, of those games.
- Golden State has been an underdog in 24 games this season and has come away with the win seven times (29.2%) in those contests.
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LeBron James Points Prop: Over 26.5
- LeBron James puts up 28.9 points, 8.3 boards and 6.8 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 0.9 steals and 0.6 blocks.
- James’ 28.9 points per game are 2.4 more than Saturday’s prop total.
- So far this season, James is 27-for-58 at scoring more than the total set for his points prop.
- The Warriors are the second-best squad in the league in points scored (118.9 per game) and 21st in points conceded (117.1).
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Jordan Poole Rebounds Prop: Over 2.5
- Jordan Poole is averaging 20.4 points, 2.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists per contest. He’s sinking 43.0% of his shots from the floor and 33.6% from 3-point range, with 2.6 triples per contest.
- Poole’s per-game rebound average of 2.7 is 0.2 more than his prop bet over/under in Saturday’s game (2.5).
- He has gone over his rebound total in 30 of 74 games with a prop so far this season.
- This season, the Lakers are grabbing 45.7 rebounds per game (sixth-ranked in NBA) and ceding 44.9 rebounds per contest (25th-ranked).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2022-23 regular season.
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