The Miami Heat are favored by 4.5 points for Game 3 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the New York Knicks at FTX Arena on Saturday, starting at 3:30 PM ET on ABC. The series is even 1-1. The matchup’s point total is set at 210.
Our computer predictions for Saturday’s game will help you place an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Knicks (+4.5) to Cover
- The spread for this game suggested by the model (0.0 points) is considerably less than the 4.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Heat, though the data still has them as the favorite. Put your money on the Knicks to cover.
- New York is 45-36-1 against the spread this season.
- The Knicks have been an underdog by 4.5 points or more 12 times this season, and covered the spread in five of those matchups.
- Miami has gone 30-49-3 ATS this season.
- The Heat are 7-19-1 ATS this season when playing as at least 4.5-point favorites.
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Total: Over 210
- The DraftKings point total for this game is more than two possessions lower (13.5 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- Miami’s games have had more than 210 points scored on 63 occasions this year.
- So far this year, 69 New York’s games have featured over 210 points scored.
- A total of 41 out of the Heat’s 82 games this season have hit the over.
- In the Knicks’ 82 chances this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 42 times.
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Moneyline Winner: Heat (-190)
- Prediction: Heat 113, Knicks 112
- Miami has won 36, or 62.1%, of the 58 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- New York has won in 20, or 50%, of the 40 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
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Bam Adebayo Rebounds Prop: Under 8.5
- Bam Adebayo puts up 20.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists per contest, shooting 54.0% from the field.
- Adebayo’s per-game rebound average of 9.2 is 0.7 more than his prop bet over/under in Saturday’s game (8.5).
- He has gone over his rebound total in 31 of 71 games with a prop so far this season.
- In 2022-23, the Knicks are second-best in the NBA in rebounds (46.6 per game) and seventh in rebounds allowed (42.0).
See all available player props for Bam Adebayo and other Heat players in this matchup and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.
All stats in this article refer to the 2022-23 regular season.
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