The Philadelphia 76ers will look to pull off an upset as slight 2.5-point underdogs for Game 3 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Boston Celtics at Wells Fargo Center on Friday, starting at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN. The series is tied 1-1. The over/under is set at 215.5 for the matchup.
Our computer predictions below will help you pick what are the best bets available for Friday’s game.
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Spread: 76ers (+2.5) to Cover
- The model line is much more favorable to the 76ers compared to the DraftKings line, a 3.3 point difference, and has them favored to win Friday’s game outright. Put your money on the 76ers.
- So far this year, Philadelphia has put together a 47-34-1 record against the spread.
- The 76ers have been an underdog by 2.5 points or more 16 times this season, and covered the spread in nine of those matchups.
- Boston is 45-36-1 against the spread this season.
- When playing as at least 2.5-point favorites this season, the Celtics have an ATS record of 32-33-1.
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Total: Over 215.5
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (227.2 points) substantially higher than the DraftKings over/under (215.5 points). Bet on the over.
- A total of 62 times so far this season, Boston and its opponent have combined to score more than 215.5 points.
- Philadelphia’s games have finished with over 215.5 points scored 54 times this year.
- The Celtics and their opponents have combined to hit the over 39 out of 82 times this season.
- 76ers games have gone over the point total 45 out of 82 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: 76ers (+120)
- Prediction: 76ers 114, Celtics 113
- Boston has won 51, or 70.8%, of the 72 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Philadelphia has been chosen as underdogs in 27 games this year and has walked away with the win 13 times (48.1%) in those games.
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Derrick White Rebounds Prop: Under 2.5
- Derrick White posts 12.4 points, 3.6 boards and 3.9 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 0.7 steals and 0.9 blocks.
- White averages 1.1 more rebounds than his over/under on Friday (which is 2.5).
- Sportsbooks have listed a rebound over/under for him 64 times this season, and he has gone over in 33 of those games.
- On the boards, the 76ers are fifth-worst in the league in rebounds (40.9 per game). But they are second-best in rebounds conceded (41.2 per game).
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Tobias Harris Points Prop: Under 14.5
- Tobias Harris is putting up 14.7 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists per contest. He is draining 50.1% of his shots from the field and 38.9% from 3-point range, with 1.7 triples per contest.
- Harris is putting up 14.7 points per game, 0.2 higher than Friday’s over/under.
- Harris has hit the points prop over at a 28-for-62 clip this season.
- The Celtics have been thriving on both offense and defense this year, ranking fourth-best in the NBA in points per game (117.9) and fourth-best in points allowed per game (111.4).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2022-23 regular season.
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