The Los Angeles Lakers will look to prove the oddsmakers wrong as 4.5-point underdogs for Game 1 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center on Tuesday, beginning at 10:00 PM ET on TNT. The matchup’s point total is set at 227.
Our computer predictions for Tuesday’s game may help you place an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Lakers (+4.5) to Cover
- The model and DraftKings both have the Warriors taking home the win, but the model has them winning by slightly less (3.7 points). Lean towards taking the Lakers.
- Los Angeles has a 40-40-2 record against the spread this year.
- The Lakers have covered the spread 12 times this season (12-18-1 ATS) when playing as at least 4.5-point underdogs.
- Golden State is 39-43-0 ATS this season.
- The Warriors are 20-20 ATS this season when playing as at least 4.5-point favorites.
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Total: Over 227
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (234.0 points) much higher than the DraftKings over/under (227 points). Bet on the over.
- Golden State’s games have finished with more than 227 points 61 times so far this season.
- Los Angeles’ games have gone over 227 points on 53 occasions this season.
- A total of 43 out of the Warriors’ 82 games this season have hit the over.
- Lakers games have gone over the point total 43 out of 82 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: Warriors (-190)
- Prediction: Warriors 119, Lakers 115
- This season, Golden State has been favored 58 times and won 37, or 63.8%, of those games.
- Los Angeles has been an underdog in 51 games this season and has come away with the win 23 times (45.1%) in those contests.
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Stephen Curry Rebounds Prop: Over 5.5
- Stephen Curry averages 29.4 points, 6.3 assists and 6.1 boards per game.
- Curry’s per-game rebound average of 6.1 is 0.6 more than his prop bet over/under for Tuesday’s game (5.5).
- This will be his 58th game with a rebound prop this season, and so far he has hit the over 36 times.
- With 45.7 rebounds per game and 44.9 rebounds conceded, the Lakers are sixth and 25th in the NBA, respectively.
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Anthony Davis Points Prop: Over 25.5
- Anthony Davis generates 25.9 points, 12.5 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game for the Lakers.
- The 25.5-point over/under for Davis on Tuesday is 0.4 lower than his scoring average.
- Davis has gone over 30 times on a points prop this season (in 54 opportunities).
- The Warriors are surrendering 117.1 points per game this year (21st-ranked in NBA), but they’ve really thrived offensively, posting 118.9 points per game (second-best).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2022-23 regular season.
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