The Atlanta Hawks will look to pull off an upset as 7-point underdogs in a decisive Game 6 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the Boston Celtics at State Farm Arena on Thursday, starting at 8:30 PM ET on TNT. The Celtics are up 3-2 in the series. The matchup has an over/under of 230.
Check out below to dig into the best bets you can place on Thursday’s game, based on our computer predictions.
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Spread: Hawks (+7) to Cover
- The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (4.1 points) is a little bit less than the 7-point edge DraftKings gives to the Celtics, though the data still has them as the favorite.
- Atlanta has gone 36-45-1 ATS this season.
- When playing as at least 7-point underdogs this year, the Hawks have an ATS record of 3-2.
- Boston has a 45-36-1 record against the spread this season.
- When playing as at least 7-point favorites this season, the Celtics have an ATS record of 20-20.
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Total: Over 230
- The DraftKings point total for this game is just 3.0 points lower than the model projection.
- A total of 42 times so far this season, Boston and its opponent have combined to score more than 230 points.
- There have been 55 Atlanta’s games this year with more than 230 points scored.
- So far this season, 39 out of the Celtics’ 82 games have gone over the point total.
- A total of 46 Hawks games this season have hit the over.
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Moneyline Winner: Celtics (-295)
- Prediction: Celtics 119, Hawks 114
- Boston has won 51, or 70.8%, of the 72 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Atlanta has been an underdog in 32 games this season and has come away with the win 12 times (37.5%) in those contests.
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Jayson Tatum Points Prop: Over 30.5
- Jayson Tatum averages 30.1 points, 4.6 assists and 8.8 rebounds per game.
- The 30.5 point total set for Tatum on Thursday is 0.4 more than his season scoring average (30.1).
- Tatum is 40-for-76 at hitting the over on his points prop total this season.
- The Hawks are the third-best team in the NBA in points scored (118.4 per game) and 25th in points conceded (118.1).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2022-23 regular season.
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