The Golden State Warriors and the Sacramento Kings meet in Game 5 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs. The Warriors are listed as favorites by 1.5 points for the game, which will be broadcast on TNT at 10:00 PM ET. The point total is 234.5 in the matchup.
Keep reading for the best bets you can make on Wednesday’s game, based on our computer predictions.
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Spread: Kings (+1.5) to Cover
- The model line is much more favorable to the Kings compared to the DraftKings line, a 4.6 point difference, and has them favored to win Wednesday’s game outright. Put your money on the Kings.
- Sacramento’s ATS record is 45-36-1 this year.
- The Kings have covered the spread 18 times this season (18-12 ATS) when playing as at least 1.5-point underdogs.
- Golden State is 39-43-0 against the spread this season.
- The Warriors have covered the spread 28 times this season (28-28 ATS) when playing as at least 1.5-point favorites.
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Total: Over 234.5
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (237.2 points) slightly higher than the DraftKings over/under (234.5 points).
- A total of 43 times so far this season, Golden State and its opponent have combined to score more than 234.5 points.
- Sacramento’s games have finished with over 234.5 points scored 46 times this season.
- In the Warriors’ 82 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 43 times.
- The Kings and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 41 out of 82 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Kings (+105)
- Prediction: Kings 120, Warriors 117
- Golden State has won 37, or 63.8%, of the 58 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Sacramento has won in 13, or 43.3%, of the 30 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
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Jordan Poole Points Prop: Over 17.5
- Jordan Poole posts 20.4 points, 2.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists per contest, shooting 43.0% from the field and 33.6% from beyond the arc with 2.6 made treys per contest.
- Poole’s 20.4 points per game are 2.9 more than Wednesday’s prop total.
- Poole has hit the points prop over at a 32-for-76 clip this season.
- Offensively, the Kings are the best squad in the NBA (120.7 points per game). Defensively, they are 25th (118.1 points conceded per game).
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De’Aaron Fox Points Prop: Over 24.5
- De’Aaron Fox is averaging 25.0 points, 4.2 rebounds and 6.1 assists per contest. He’s sinking 51.2% of his shots from the floor and 32.4% from beyond the arc, with 1.6 triples per game.
- Fox has recorded 25.0 points per game in the 2022-23 season, 0.5 points higher than Wednesday’s over/under.
- In 72 games this season with a points prop total, Fox has hit the over 36 times.
- The Warriors are allowing 117.1 points per game this year (21st-ranked in NBA), but they’ve really thrived on offense, averaging 118.9 points per game (second-best).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2022-23 regular season.
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