The Miami Heat will look to pull off an upset as 12-point underdogs in a decisive Game 5 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum on Wednesday, tipping off at 9:30 PM ET on NBA. The Heat have a 3-1 series lead. The matchup has an over/under of 220 points.
Dig into the best bets available (according to our computer predictions) for Wednesday’s game, before you make an informed wager on the matchup.
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Spread: Heat (+12) to Cover
- The model favors the Bucks by 6.6 points, a much smaller margin than the 12-point spread set by DraftKings. Take the Heat to cover.
- Miami is 30-49-3 against the spread this season.
- Milwaukee is 44-33-5 against the spread this season.
- The Bucks have covered the spread twice this season (2-5-1 ATS) when playing as at least 12-point favorites.
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Total: Over 220
- In this game, the model projects a total (225.3 points) slightly higher than the DraftKings over/under (220 points).
- A total of 53 times so far this year, Milwaukee and its opponent have combined for more than 220 points.
- There have been 39 Miami’s games this season with more than 220 points scored.
- A total of 40 out of the Bucks’ 82 games this season have hit the over.
- The Heat and their opponents have combined to hit the over 41 out of 82 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Bucks (-610)
- Prediction: Bucks 116, Heat 109
- Milwaukee has been the favorite in 65 games this season and won 53 (81.5%) of those contests.
- Miami has been chosen as underdogs in 23 games this year and has walked away with the win seven times (30.4%) in those games.
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Jrue Holiday Points Prop: Under 17.5
- Jrue Holiday posts 19.3 points, 5.1 boards and 7.4 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 1.2 steals and 0.4 blocks.
- Holiday’s 19.3 points per game are 1.8 more than Wednesday’s prop total.
- Holiday has had 66 chances to hit the over on a point prop this season and came through 26 times.
- On offense the Heat are the worst team in the NBA (109.5 points per game). However defensively they are second-best (109.8 points allowed per game).
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Bam Adebayo Assists Prop: Under 3.5
- Bam Adebayo provides 20.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game for the Heat.
- Adebayo’s assist average — 3.2 — is 0.3 lower than Wednesday’s over/under (3.5).
- In 71 games with an assist over/under this season, Adebayo has gone over 36 times.
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All stats in this article refer to the 2022-23 regular season.
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