The Dallas Mavericks will look to overcome the odds as 4.5-point underdogs in a decisive Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center on Thursday, beginning at 8:30 PM ET on TNT. The Mavericks hold a 3-1 series lead. The point total for the matchup is set at 209.5.
Our computer predictions for Thursday’s game will help you make an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5) to Cover
- The model projects the Timberwolves to win, just as DraftKings does, but the model favors them by slightly more points (7.0 to 4.5).
- Minnesota has a 40-40-2 record against the spread this season.
- The Timberwolves have been favored by 4.5 points or more 41 times this season, and covered the spread in 20 of those games.
- Dallas is 48-34-0 against the spread this season.
- When playing as at least 4.5-point underdogs this season, the Mavericks have an ATS record of 4-7.
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Total: Over 209.5
- The DraftKings point total for this matchup is more than two possessions lower (14.4 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- In 61 games this season, Minnesota and its opponent have combined to score more than 209.5 points.
- Dallas’ games have had over 209.5 points 72 times this season.
- A total of 41 out of the Timberwolves’ 82 games this season have hit the over.
- So far this year, 36 out of the Mavericks’ 82 games with an over/under have gone over the point total.
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Moneyline Winner: Timberwolves (-192)
- Prediction: Timberwolves 115, Mavericks 108
- Minnesota has been the favorite in 61 games this season and won 46 (75.4%) of those contests.
- Dallas has been an underdog in 31 games this season and has come away with the win 12 times (38.7%) in those contests.
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Rudy Gobert Rebounds Prop: Over 11.5
- Rudy Gobert puts up 14.0 points, 12.9 boards and 1.3 assists per contest. At the other end, he averages 0.7 steals and 2.1 blocks (sixth in league).
- His per-game rebounding average of 12.9 is 1.4 higher than his prop bet on Thursday (11.5).
- This will be his 82nd game this season with a rebound prop and so far he has hit the over 41 times.
- On the boards, the Mavericks are 21st in the league in rebounds (42.9 per game). They are 25th in rebounds allowed (45.1 per game).
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Kyrie Irving Points Prop: Under 22.5
- Kyrie Irving is averaging 25.6 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.2 assists per contest. He’s sinking 49.7% of his shots from the field and 41.1% from 3-point range, with 3.0 treys per contest (ninth in league).
- The 25.6 points Irving has scored per game this season is 3.1 more than his prop bet over/under set for Thursday (22.5).
- He has gone up against a points prop bet in 63 games this season, and he’s gone over 30 times.
- The Timberwolves sport a top-five defense this season, ranking best in the league with 106.5 points allowed per game. Offensively, they rank 18th with 113 points scored per contest.
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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