The Minnesota Timberwolves will look to overcome the odds as slight 1.5-point underdogs for a decisive Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center on Tuesday, tipping off at 8:30 PM ET on TNT. The Mavericks are up 3-0 in the series. The matchup has an over/under set at 211.5 points.
If you are trying to gain an edge on Tuesday’s game, dig into the best bets available in this matchup, below (based on our computer predictions).
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Spread: Timberwolves (+1.5) to Cover
- The model has the Timberwolves as 0.8-point favorites in this one despite the opposite prediction from DraftKings. However, the margin between the two lines is only 2.3 points.
- Minnesota’s ATS record is 40-40-2 this season.
- The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 10-7 when playing as at least 1.5-point underdogs this season.
- Dallas is 48-34-0 against the spread this season.
- The Mavericks have been favored by 1.5 points or more 46 times this season, and covered the spread in 29 of those games.
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Total: Over 211.5
- The DraftKings point total for this game is more than two possessions lower (12.6 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- Dallas’ games have finished with more than 211.5 points 70 times so far this year.
- Minnesota’s games have gone over 211.5 points on 58 occasions this year.
- The Mavericks and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 36 out of 82 times this season.
- Timberwolves games have gone over the point total 41 out of 82 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Timberwolves (+105)
- Prediction: Timberwolves 113, Mavericks 112
- Dallas has been the favorite in 49 games this season and won 37 (75.5%) of those contests.
- Minnesota has come away with nine wins in the 20 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Kyrie Irving Points Prop: Under 23.5
- Kyrie Irving posts 25.6 points, 5.0 boards and 5.2 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 1.3 steals and 0.5 blocks.
- The 23.5-point prop total set for Irving on Tuesday is 2.1 less than his season scoring average (25.6).
- So far this season, Irving is 30-for-63 at going over the total set for his points prop.
- Offensively, the Timberwolves are the 18th-ranked team in the league (113.0 points per game). Defensively, they are best (106.5 points conceded per game).
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Anthony Edwards Rebounds Prop: Over 6.5
- Anthony Edwards is averaging 25.9 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.1 assists per contest. He’s also sinking 46.1% of his shots from the field and 35.7% from beyond the arc, with 2.4 triples per contest.
- His rebounding average — 5.4 — is 1.1 lower than his over/under on Tuesday.
- He has collected more boards than the over/under set for him by bookmakers 38 times this season in 80 games with that prop available.
- The Mavericks are grabbing 42.9 boards per game (21st-ranked in league). They are giving up 45.1 rebounds per contest (25th-ranked).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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