The Indiana Pacers will look to prove the oddsmakers wrong as 7.5-point underdogs heading into a decisive Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Monday, tipping off at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN. The Celtics are up 3-0 in the series. The matchup has an over/under set at 223 points.
Trying to gain an edge on Monday’s game? Dig into the best bets available for this matchup (based on our computer predictions) in the article below.
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Spread: Pacers (+7.5) to Cover
- The model favors the Celtics by 5.7 points, just 1.8 fewer than the 7.5-point spread set by DraftKings.
- So far this season, Indiana has compiled a 44-35-3 record against the spread.
- The Pacers have an ATS record of 4-2 when playing as at least 7.5-point underdogs this year.
- Boston’s ATS record is 42-36-4 this season.
- The Celtics have covered the spread 27 times this season (27-21-3 ATS) when playing as at least 7.5-point favorites.
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Total: Over 223
- The model projects a total (234.2 points) much higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game (223 points). Take the over.
- Boston’s games have had more than 223 points scored on 54 occasions this season.
- Indiana’s games have had over 223 points 70 times this season.
- So far this season, 43 out of the Celtics’ 82 games have hit the over.
- A total of 42 Pacers games this year have hit the over.
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Moneyline Winner: Celtics (-298)
- Prediction: Celtics 120, Pacers 114
- This season, Boston has been favored 79 times and won 63, or 79.7%, of those games.
- Indiana has been victorious in 20, or 52.6%, of the 38 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.
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Jayson Tatum Points Prop: Over 29.5
- Jayson Tatum puts up 26.9 points, 8.1 boards and 4.9 assists per game, shooting 47.1% from the floor and 37.6% from beyond the arc with 3.1 made 3-pointers per game (seventh in NBA).
- The 29.5 points prop total set for Tatum on Monday is 2.6 more than his scoring average on the season (26.9).
- So far this season, Tatum is 33-for-77 at hitting the over on the total set for his points prop.
- On offense, the Pacers are the best team in the league (123.3 points per game). But defensively they are fourth-worst (120.2 points allowed per game).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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