The Indiana Pacers are favored by 5.5 points heading into a decisive Game 6 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the New York Knicks at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday, starting at 8:30 PM ET on ESPN. The Knicks are leading the series 3-2. The matchup has an over/under set at 215.5 points.
Our computer predictions below will help you pick what are the best bets available for Friday’s game.
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Spread: Knicks (+5.5) to Cover
- The spread for this game suggested by the model (1.8 points) is considerably less than the 5.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Pacers, though the data still has them as the favorite. Put your money on the Knicks to cover.
- New York is 43-36-3 ATS this year.
- The Knicks have covered the spread three times this year (3-7 ATS) when playing as at least 5.5-point underdogs.
- Indiana is 44-35-3 ATS this season.
- When playing as at least 5.5-point favorites this season, the Pacers have an ATS record of 13-11-1.
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Total: Over 215.5
- The model projects a total (231.1 points) much higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup (215.5 points). Take the over.
- A total of 76 times so far this season, Indiana and its opponent have combined for more than 215.5 points.
- New York’s games have finished with over 215.5 points scored 51 times this season.
- A total of 42 out of the Pacers’ 82 games this season have gone over the point total.
- So far this season, 37 out of the Knicks’ 82 games with an over/under have gone over the point total.
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Moneyline Winner: Pacers (-205)
- Prediction: Pacers 116, Knicks 115
- This season, Indiana has won 27 out of the 44 games, or 61.4%, in which it has been favored.
- New York has been chosen as underdogs in 35 games this year and has walked away with the win 14 times (40%) in those games.
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Myles Turner Points Prop: Under 17.5
- Myles Turner puts up 17.1 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game, shooting 52.4% from the floor and 35.8% from beyond the arc with 1.5 made treys per contest.
- Turner’s 17.1 points per game are 0.4 fewer than Friday’s over/under.
- He is 36-for-81 at hitting the over on his points prop this season.
- In 2023-24, the Knicks are 19th in the league offensively (112.8 points scored per game) and second-best defensively (108.2 points conceded).
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Donte DiVincenzo Points Prop: Over 17.5
- Donte DiVincenzo is putting up 15.5 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. He is sinking 44.3% of his shots from the floor and 40.1% from 3-point range, with 3.5 treys per contest (fourth in league).
- The 17.5-point prop bet set for DiVincenzo on Friday is 2.0 higher than his scoring average on the season.
- DiVincenzo has had 70 chances to hit the over on a point prop this season and came through 31 times.
- Because of the Pacers’ defensive struggles this year, ranking fourth-worst in the NBA with 120.2 points allowed per game, they’ve been forced to count on their offense, which ranks best in the league scoring 123.3 points per game.
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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