The Minnesota Timberwolves are favored by 2 points ahead of a decisive Game 6 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Denver Nuggets at Target Center on Thursday, starting at 8:30 PM ET on ESPN. The Nuggets are ahead in the series 3-2. The matchup has an over/under of 205.
Dive into the best bets available (according to our computer predictions) in Thursday’s game, before you make an informed wager on the contest.
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Spread: Timberwolves (-2) to Cover
- The model projects the Timberwolves to win, just as DraftKings does, but the model favors them by a small margin more (4.0 to 2).
- So far this season, Minnesota has put together a 40-40-2 record against the spread.
- When playing as at least 2-point favorites this season, the Timberwolves have an ATS record of 26-30-2.
- Denver is 38-42-2 ATS this season.
- The Nuggets have been an underdog by 2 points or more seven times this year, and covered the spread in five of those contests.
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Total: Over 205
- The DraftKings point total for this game is more than two possessions lower (15.9 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- Minnesota’s games have finished with more than 205 points 69 times so far this year.
- Denver’s games have had over 205 points 72 times this season.
- Timberwolves games have hit the over 41 out of 82 times this season.
- Nuggets games have hit the over 35 out of 82 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Timberwolves (-130)
- Prediction: Timberwolves 112, Nuggets 108
- Minnesota has won 46, or 75.4%, of the 61 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Denver has been victorious in four of the 10 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.
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Rudy Gobert Points Prop: Under 11.5
- Rudy Gobert posts 14.0 points, 1.3 assists and 12.9 rebounds per contest.
- The 11.5-point over/under set for Gobert on Thursday is 2.5 less than his scoring average on the season (14.0).
- Gobert has had 81 chances to hit the over on a point prop this season and came through 40 times.
- At 114.9 points scored per game and 109.6 points allowed, the Nuggets are 14th in the NBA offensively and sixth defensively.
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Nikola Jokic Points Prop: Under 29.5
- Nikola Jokic is putting up 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists per contest. He’s also draining 58.3% of his shots from the field (10th in league) and 35.9% from 3-point range, with 1.1 triples per game.
- Thursday’s over/under for Jokic is 29.5 points, 3.1 more than his season average.
- Jokic has had a points prop in 81 games this season, and has exceeded the total 39 times.
- The Timberwolves are averaging 113 points per game this season (18th-ranked in NBA), but they’ve really shined defensively, allowing only 106.5 points per contest (best).
Check out the prop bets available for Nikola Jokic and other Nuggets players in this matchup and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.
All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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