Thunder vs. Mavericks Predictions & Best Bets: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under and Props | Game 5

Written By PlayPicks Staff on May 14, 2024

The Oklahoma City Thunder are favored by 4.5 points ahead of Game 5 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Dallas Mavericks at Paycom Center on Wednesday, beginning at 9:30 PM ET on TNT. The series is deadlocked 2-2. The matchup’s over/under is set at 212.5.

Our computer predictions in this article will help you pick what are the best bets available for Wednesday’s game.

Ready to put your picks to the test? Sign up for DraftKings Sportsbook and bet on this matchup today!

Spread: Thunder (-4.5) to Cover

  • The DraftKings line for this game has the Thunder favored by 4.5, while the model predicts they’ll win by considerably more (8.2 points). Put your money on the Thunder.
  • Oklahoma City is 46-35-1 against the spread this season.
  • The Thunder are 25-15 ATS this season when playing as at least 4.5-point favorites.
  • So far this year, Dallas has compiled a 48-34-0 record against the spread.
  • The Mavericks have an ATS record of 4-7 when playing as at least 4.5-point underdogs this season.

Think the Thunder will cover? Sign up and bet with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Total: Over 212.5

  • In this matchup, the model projects a total (230.4 points) much higher than the DraftKings over/under (212.5 points). Bet on the over.
  • Oklahoma City and its opponent have broken the 212.5-point mark 68 times this year.
  • Dallas’ games have finished with over 212.5 points scored 69 times this year.
  • So far this season, 43 out of the Thunder’s 82 games have hit the over.
  • So far this year, 36 out of the Mavericks’ 82 games with an over/under have hit the over.

Will this matchup go over the total? Check out DraftKings Sportsbook for the latest odds and to get the best signup offer using our link!

Moneyline Winner: Thunder (-175)

  • Prediction: Thunder 119, Mavericks 111
  • Oklahoma City has been the favorite in 61 games this season and won 47 (77%) of those contests.
  • Dallas has been chosen as underdogs in 31 games this year and has walked away with the win 12 times (38.7%) in those games.

Which team do you think will take home the win? Sign up for DraftKings Sportsbook and make your pick!

Jalen Williams Rebounds Prop: Over 5.5

  • Jalen Williams posts 19.1 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 1.1 steals and 0.6 blocks.
  • He averages 1.5 fewer rebounds than his over/under on Wednesday (which is 5.5).
  • This will be his 73rd game with a rebound prop this season, and so far he has hit the over on 32 occasions.
  • The Mavericks are 21st in the NBA in rebounds per game (42.9) and 25th in rebounds conceded (45.1).

Check out all available player props for Jalen Williams and other Thunder players in this game and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Luka Doncic Rebounds Prop: Over 9.5

  • Luka Doncic generates 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game for the Mavericks.
  • He has collected 9.2 boards per game, which is less than his prop bet in Wednesday’s game (9.5).
  • Bookmakers have listed a rebound over/under for him 75 times this season, and he has gone over in 36 of those games.
  • The Thunder have found it difficult to collect rebounds this season, ranking fourth-worst in the league with 42 boards per game. They rank 23rd by allowing 44.7 boards per contest.

Check out the prop bets available for Luka Doncic and other Mavericks players in this game and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.

All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.

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