Mavericks vs. Thunder Predictions & Best Bets: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under and Props | Game 4

Written By PlayPicks Staff on May 12, 2024

The Dallas Mavericks are favored by 2 points heading into Game 4 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Oklahoma City Thunder at American Airlines Center on Monday, beginning at 9:30 PM ET on TNT. The Mavericks are currently up 2-1 in the series. The point total is set at 215.5 in the matchup.

If you are looking to make an informed wager on Monday’s game, find out the best bets available for this matchup, below (based on our computer predictions).

Ready to put your picks to the test? Sign up for DraftKings Sportsbook and bet on this matchup today!

Spread: Thunder (+2) to Cover

  • The data strongly suggests betting on the Thunder in this one. The model favors them while DraftKings has the Mavericks favored and the difference between the two is 4.0 points.
  • Oklahoma City’s ATS record is 46-35-1 this year.
  • The Thunder have been an underdog by 2 points or more 18 times this year, and covered the spread in 10 of those contests.
  • Dallas is 48-34-0 against the spread this season.
  • The Mavericks have an ATS record of 28-16 when playing as at least 2-point favorites this season.

Think the Thunder will cover? Sign up and bet with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Total: Over 215.5

  • The DraftKings point total for this matchup is more than two possessions lower (15.3 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
  • Dallas and its opponent have broken the 215.5-point mark 68 times this year.
  • So far this year, 65 Oklahoma City’s games have featured over 215.5 points scored.
  • So far this season, 36 out of the Mavericks’ 82 games have gone over the point total.
  • In the Thunder’s 82 chances this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 43 times.

Will this matchup go over the total? Check out DraftKings Sportsbook for the latest odds and to get the best signup offer using our link!

Moneyline Winner: Thunder (+105)

  • Prediction: Thunder 116, Mavericks 114
  • Dallas has been the favorite in 49 games this season and won 37 (75.5%) of those contests.
  • Oklahoma City has been chosen as underdogs in 21 games this year and has walked away with the win 10 times (47.6%) in those games.

Which team do you think will take home the win? Sign up for DraftKings Sportsbook and make your pick!

Daniel Gafford Rebounds Prop: Over 6.5

  • Daniel Gafford posts 11.0 points, 1.6 assists and 7.6 boards per contest.
  • His rebounding average of 7.6 is lower than his over/under on Monday (6.5).
  • He has gone over on rebounds in 34 of 71 games with that prop available so far this season.
  • On the boards, the Thunder are fourth-worst in the league in rebounds (42 per game). They are 23rd in rebounds allowed (44.7 per game).

Check out all available player props for Daniel Gafford and other Mavericks players in this matchup and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jalen Williams Rebounds Prop: Over 5.5

  • The Thunder are getting 19.1 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game from Jalen Williams this season.
  • He grabs 4.0 rebounds per game, 1.5 less than his prop bet on Monday.
  • He’s grabbed more rebounds than the listed total for him 32 times this season in his 72 games bookmakers set a prop.
  • The Mavericks are averaging 42.9 boards per game (21st-ranked in league). They are allowing 45.1 rebounds per contest (25th-ranked).

Check out the prop bets available for Jalen Williams and other Thunder players in this matchup and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.

All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.

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