The Minnesota Timberwolves take a 2-1 lead into Game 4 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs. The Timberwolves enter the matchup as favorites by 3 points for the game, which airs on TNT at 8:00 PM ET. The matchup’s point total is 203.5.
Check out below to dig into the best bets you can make on Sunday’s game, based on our computer predictions.
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Spread: Timberwolves (-3) to Cover
- Both DraftKings and the model expect the Timberwolves to walk away with the victory, but the model spread (5.1) is 2.1 points further in their direction.
- So far this season, Minnesota has put together a 40-40-2 record against the spread.
- The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 22-26-2 when playing as at least 3-point favorites this season.
- Denver’s ATS record is 38-42-2 this year.
- The Nuggets have an ATS record of 3-2 when playing as at least 3-point underdogs this year.
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Total: Over 203.5
- The DraftKings point total for this game is more than two possessions lower (17.5 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- Minnesota and its opponent have broken the 203.5-point mark 69 times this year.
- Denver’s games have finished with over 203.5 points scored 73 times this season.
- A total of 41 out of the Timberwolves’ 82 games this season have hit the over.
- In the Nuggets’ 82 chances this year, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 35 times.
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Moneyline Winner: Timberwolves (-148)
- Prediction: Timberwolves 113, Nuggets 108
- This season, Minnesota has won 46 out of the 61 games, or 75.4%, in which it has been favored.
- Denver has been victorious in four of the 10 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.
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Karl-Anthony Towns Points Prop: Under 19.5
- Karl-Anthony Towns puts up 21.8 points, 8.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game, shooting 50.4% from the field and 41.6% from beyond the arc with 2.2 made 3-pointers per contest.
- Towns’ 21.8 points per game are 2.3 points more than Sunday’s over/under.
- He has gone over on his points prop on 29 occasions this season (in 62 games with such a prop).
- The Nuggets put up 114.9 points per game and allow 109.6, making them 14th in the NBA on offense and sixth defensively.
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Jamal Murray Points Prop: Under 21.5
- Jamal Murray gets the Nuggets 21.2 points, 4.1 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game while putting up 1.0 steal and 0.7 blocked shots.
- Murray is averaging 21.2 points per game this season, 0.3 less than his over/under on Sunday.
- This season, Murray has scored beyond the points prop number in 26 of 65 games with a set total.
- The Timberwolves have a top-five defense this year, ranking best in the league with 106.5 points allowed per game. Offensively, they rank 18th with 113 points scored per contest.
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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