Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Predictions & Best Bets: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under and Props | Game 4

Written By PlayPicks Staff on May 11, 2024

The Minnesota Timberwolves take a 2-1 lead into Game 4 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs. The Timberwolves enter the matchup as favorites by 3 points for the game, which airs on TNT at 8:00 PM ET. The matchup’s point total is 203.5.

Check out below to dig into the best bets you can make on Sunday’s game, based on our computer predictions.

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Spread: Timberwolves (-3) to Cover

  • Both DraftKings and the model expect the Timberwolves to walk away with the victory, but the model spread (5.1) is 2.1 points further in their direction.
  • So far this season, Minnesota has put together a 40-40-2 record against the spread.
  • The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 22-26-2 when playing as at least 3-point favorites this season.
  • Denver’s ATS record is 38-42-2 this year.
  • The Nuggets have an ATS record of 3-2 when playing as at least 3-point underdogs this year.

Think the Timberwolves will cover? Sign up and bet with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Total: Over 203.5

  • The DraftKings point total for this game is more than two possessions lower (17.5 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
  • Minnesota and its opponent have broken the 203.5-point mark 69 times this year.
  • Denver’s games have finished with over 203.5 points scored 73 times this season.
  • A total of 41 out of the Timberwolves’ 82 games this season have hit the over.
  • In the Nuggets’ 82 chances this year, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 35 times.

Will this matchup go over the total? Check out DraftKings Sportsbook for the latest odds and to get the best signup offer using our link!

Moneyline Winner: Timberwolves (-148)

  • Prediction: Timberwolves 113, Nuggets 108
  • This season, Minnesota has won 46 out of the 61 games, or 75.4%, in which it has been favored.
  • Denver has been victorious in four of the 10 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.

Which team do you think will take home the win? Sign up for DraftKings Sportsbook and make your pick!

Karl-Anthony Towns Points Prop: Under 19.5

  • Karl-Anthony Towns puts up 21.8 points, 8.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game, shooting 50.4% from the field and 41.6% from beyond the arc with 2.2 made 3-pointers per contest.
  • Towns’ 21.8 points per game are 2.3 points more than Sunday’s over/under.
  • He has gone over on his points prop on 29 occasions this season (in 62 games with such a prop).
  • The Nuggets put up 114.9 points per game and allow 109.6, making them 14th in the NBA on offense and sixth defensively.

Check out all available player props for Karl-Anthony Towns and other Timberwolves players in this game and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jamal Murray Points Prop: Under 21.5

  • Jamal Murray gets the Nuggets 21.2 points, 4.1 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game while putting up 1.0 steal and 0.7 blocked shots.
  • Murray is averaging 21.2 points per game this season, 0.3 less than his over/under on Sunday.
  • This season, Murray has scored beyond the points prop number in 26 of 65 games with a set total.
  • The Timberwolves have a top-five defense this year, ranking best in the league with 106.5 points allowed per game. Offensively, they rank 18th with 113 points scored per contest.

Check out the prop bets available for Jamal Murray and other Nuggets players in this game and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.

All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.

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