The Denver Nuggets will look to pull off an upset as slight 3.5-point underdogs heading into Game 3 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center on Friday, tipping off at 9:30 PM ET on ESPN. The Timberwolves are up 2-0 in the series. The matchup has an over/under set at 205 points.
If you are aiming to make an informed wager on Friday’s game, find out the best bets available in this matchup, in this article (based on our computer predictions).
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Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5) to Cover
- The DraftKings line for this game has the Timberwolves favored by 3.5, while the model predicts they’ll win by slightly more (6.0 points).
- So far this season, Minnesota has put together a 40-40-2 record against the spread.
- The Timberwolves have been favored by 3.5 points or more 47 times this season, and covered the spread in 22 of those contests.
- Denver is 38-42-2 against the spread this year.
- The Nuggets have an ATS record of 3-1 when playing as at least 3.5-point underdogs this season.
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Total: Over 205
- The DraftKings point total for this game is more than two possessions lower (16.2 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- A total of 69 times so far this season, Minnesota and its opponent have combined to score more than 205 points.
- Denver’s games have had over 205 points 72 times this season.
- The Timberwolves and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 41 out of 82 times this season.
- A total of 35 Nuggets games this year have hit the over.
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Moneyline Winner: Timberwolves (-175)
- Prediction: Timberwolves 114, Nuggets 108
- Minnesota has been the favorite in 61 games this season and won 46 (75.4%) of those contests.
- Denver has won in four of the 10 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
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Rudy Gobert Points Prop: Under 12.5
- Rudy Gobert averages 14.0 points, 12.9 boards and 1.3 assists per contest, shooting 66.1% from the field (second in league).
- The 14.0 points Gobert scores per game are 1.5 more than his prop total on Friday (12.5).
- Gobert has exceeded his points prop total 40 times this season out of 81 games with such a prop.
- The Nuggets score 114.9 points per game and allow 109.6, ranking them 14th in the NBA offensively and sixth defensively.
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Nikola Jokic Points Prop: Under 29.5
- On a per-game basis, Nikola Jokic gets the Nuggets 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists. He also averages 1.4 steals (seventh in NBA) and 0.9 blocked shots.
- The 26.4 points Jokic scores per game are 3.1 less than his over/under on Friday.
- Jokic has hit the over on his points prop on 39 occasions this season (in 81 games with such a prop).
- The Timberwolves are scoring 113 points per game this year (18th-ranked in NBA), but they’ve really thrived on defense, allowing only 106.5 points per contest (best).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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