The Boston Celtics are favored by 12.5 points for Game 1 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Cleveland Cavaliers at TD Garden on Tuesday, beginning at 7:00 PM ET on TNT. The matchup has an over/under set at 211 points.
Our computer predictions for Tuesday’s game may help you place an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Celtics (-12.5) to Cover
- The model projects the Celtics to win, just as DraftKings does, but the model favors them by slightly more points (14.1 to 12.5).
- Boston has a 42-36-4 record against the spread this season.
- When playing as at least 12.5-point favorites this season, the Celtics have an ATS record of 11-6.
- Cleveland’s ATS record is 38-42-2 this year.
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Total: Over 211
- The model predicts a total (224.4 points) much higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup (211 points). Take the over.
- Boston’s games have finished with more than 211 points 73 times so far this season.
- So far this year, 62 Cleveland’s games have featured more than 211 points scored.
- So far this season, 43 out of the Celtics’ 82 games have gone over the point total.
- So far this year, 40 out of the Cavaliers’ 82 games with an over/under have hit the over.
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Moneyline Winner: Celtics (-700)
- Prediction: Celtics 119, Cavaliers 105
- Boston has been the favorite in 79 games this season and won 63 (79.7%) of those contests.
- Cleveland has won in 11, or 37.9%, of the 29 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
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Jaylen Brown Points Prop: Under 23.5
- Jaylen Brown posts 23.0 points, 5.5 boards and 3.6 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 1.2 steals and 0.5 blocks.
- Tuesday’s points prop for Brown is 23.5. That is 0.5 more than his season average.
- Brown has had 77 chances to hit the over on a point prop this season and came through 38 times.
- On offense the Cavaliers are the 20th-ranked team in the league (112.6 points per game). On defense they are seventh (110.2 points allowed per game).
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Donovan Mitchell Points Prop: Under 27.5
- On a per-game basis, Donovan Mitchell gets the Cavaliers 26.6 points, 5.1 rebounds and 6.1 assists. He also averages 1.8 steals and 0.5 blocked shots.
- Mitchell’s 26.6 points per game average is 0.9 fewer than Tuesday’s over/under.
- He is 25-for-66 at going over his points prop total this season.
- It’s been a dominant stretch for the Celtics, who are scoring 120.6 points per game (second-best in NBA) and surrendering 109.2 points per contest (fifth-best).
Check out the prop bets available for Donovan Mitchell and other Cavaliers players in this game and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.
All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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