The Minnesota Timberwolves take a 1-0 lead into Game 2 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs. The Nuggets are listed as favorites by 6.5 points for the game, which will be broadcast on TNT at 10:00 PM ET. The matchup’s over/under is 207.5.
Our computer predictions for Monday’s game can help you make an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Timberwolves (+6.5) to Cover
- The model favors the Nuggets by 0.8 points, a much smaller margin than the 6.5-point spread set by DraftKings. Take the Timberwolves to cover.
- Minnesota has a 40-40-2 record against the spread this season.
- The Timberwolves have been an underdog by 6.5 points or more three times this season, and covered the spread in two of those contests.
- Denver’s ATS record is 38-42-2 this season.
- When playing as at least 6.5-point favorites this season, the Nuggets have an ATS record of 20-19-1.
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Total: Over 207.5
- The DraftKings point total for this game is more than two possessions lower (14.1 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- Denver and its opponent have broken the 207.5-point mark 68 times this year.
- Minnesota’s games have gone over 207.5 points on 67 occasions this year.
- In the Nuggets’ 82 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 35 times.
- The Timberwolves and their opponents have combined to hit the over 41 out of 82 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-265)
- Prediction: Nuggets 111, Timberwolves 110
- This season, Denver has won 53 out of the 72 games, or 73.6%, in which it has been favored.
- Minnesota has won in nine, or 45%, of the 20 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
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Jamal Murray Points Prop: Under 22.5
- Jamal Murray posts 21.2 points, 4.1 boards and 6.5 assists per contest. At the other end, he averages 1.0 steal and 0.7 blocks.
- The 22.5-point prop total for Murray on Monday is 1.3 higher than his scoring average, which is 21.2.
- He has gone over 26 times on a points prop this season (in 65 opportunities).
- The Timberwolves are 18th in the NBA in points scored (113 per game) and best in points allowed (106.5).
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Anthony Edwards Points Prop: Under 28.5
- On a per-game basis, Anthony Edwards gives the Timberwolves 25.9 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.1 assists. He also averages 1.3 steals and 0.5 blocked shots.
- The 28.5-point prop total for Edwards on Monday is 2.6 higher than his scoring average, which is 25.9.
- Edwards is 38-for-80 at scoring more than his points prop this season.
- The Nuggets rank 14th in the NBA with 114.9 points per game so far this season. At the other end, they rank sixth with 109.6 points allowed per contest.
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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