Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: Western Semifinals Game 1 Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – May 4, 2024

Written By PlayPicks Staff on May 3, 2024

The Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26) are looking to pull off an upset as 4.5-point underdogs in Game 1 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs, and will face off against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena on Saturday, starting at 7:00 PM ET on TNT. The matchup has a 209.5 point total.

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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Betting Odds

Favorite Spread Total
Nuggets -4.5 209.5

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Injury Report as of May 4

Nuggets: Vlatko Cancar: Out (Knee), Jamal Murray: Questionable (Calf)

Timberwolves: None

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Timberwolves (+4.5)
Total Pick Over (209.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Stat Rankings

Nuggets Avg. (Rank) Timberwolves Avg. (Rank)
114.9 (14th) Points Scored 113 (18th)
109.6 (6th) Points Allowed 106.5 (1st)
44.4 (7th) Rebounds 43.6 (15th)
10.7 (13th) Off. Rebounds 9.4 (24th)
11.7 (25th) 3pt Made 12.6 (15th)
29.5 (3rd) Assists 26.6 (15th)
11.8 (4th) Turnovers 13.4 (19th)

Best Betting Site for Nuggets vs. Timberwolves

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Nuggets Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Nikola Jokic 79 26.4 12.4 9 1.4 0.9 1.1
Jamal Murray 59 21.2 4.1 6.5 1 0.7 2.5
Michael Porter Jr. 81 16.7 7 1.5 0.5 0.7 2.7
Aaron Gordon 73 13.9 6.5 3.5 0.8 0.6 0.5
Reggie Jackson 82 10.2 1.9 3.8 0.5 0.2 1.2

Timberwolves Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Anthony Edwards 79 25.9 5.4 5.1 1.3 0.5 2.4
Karl-Anthony Towns 62 21.8 8.3 3 0.7 0.7 2.2
Rudy Gobert 76 14 12.9 1.3 0.7 2.1 0
Naz Reid 81 13.5 5.2 1.3 0.8 0.9 2.1
Mike Conley 76 11.4 2.9 5.9 1.2 0.2 2.4

Betting Trends

  • Against the spread, the Nuggets are 38-42-2 this season.
  • Against the spread as 4.5-point favorites or more, Denver is 25-28-2.
  • There have been 35 Nuggets games (out of 82) that went over the total this season.
  • Denver’s games have finished with more than 209.5 points 67 times so far this year.
  • The over/under in this matchup is 209.5 points, 15 fewer than the average total in this season’s Nuggets contests.
  • The Timberwolves have covered the spread 40 times in 82 games.
  • Minnesota has an ATS record of 4-4 as a 4.5-point underdog or greater.
  • The Timberwolves have played 82 games this season, and 41 of them have hit the over.
  • Minnesota’s games have gone over 209.5 points on 61 occasions this year.
  • The average total points scored in Timberwolves games this year (209.5) is 10 points higher than the total for this matchup.

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