Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Predictions & Best Bets: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under and Props | Game 1

Written By PlayPicks Staff on May 3, 2024

The Denver Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves take the court to tip off the second round of the NBA Playoffs. The Nuggets are listed as favorites by 4.5 points for the game, which airs on TNT at 7:00 PM ET. The matchup has an over/under set at 209.5 points.

Before you make an informed wager on the matchup, check out the best bets available in Saturday’s game based on our computer predictions.

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Spread: Timberwolves (+4.5) to Cover

  • The spread for this game suggested by the model (1.2 points) is much tighter than the 4.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Nuggets, though the data still has them as the favorite. Put your money on the Timberwolves to cover.
  • Minnesota has a 40-40-2 record against the spread this year.
  • The Timberwolves are 4-4 ATS this season when playing as at least 4.5-point underdogs.
  • Denver is 38-42-2 against the spread this season.
  • The Nuggets have an ATS record of 25-28-2 when playing as at least 4.5-point favorites this season.

Think the Timberwolves will cover? Sign up and bet with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Total: Over 209.5

  • The model projects a total (221.8 points) much higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup (209.5 points). Take the over.
  • A total of 67 times so far this year, Denver and its opponent have combined to score more than 209.5 points.
  • Minnesota’s games have finished with over 209.5 points scored 61 times this year.
  • Nuggets games have gone over the point total 35 out of 82 times this season.
  • So far this season, 41 out of the Timberwolves’ 82 games with an over/under have gone over the point total.

Will this matchup go over the total? Check out DraftKings Sportsbook for the latest odds and to get the best signup offer using our link!

Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-185)

  • Prediction: Nuggets 111, Timberwolves 110
  • This season, Denver has won 53 out of the 72 games, or 73.6%, in which it has been favored.
  • Minnesota has been chosen as underdogs in 20 games this year and has walked away with the win nine times (45%) in those games.

Which team do you think will end up victorious? Sign up for DraftKings Sportsbook and make your pick!

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop: Under 17.5

  • Michael Porter Jr. averages 16.7 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.5 assists per contest. At the other end, he averages 0.5 steals and 0.7 blocks.
  • Saturday’s points prop for Porter is 17.5. That is 0.8 more than his season average.
  • Porter has had 77 chances to hit the over on a point prop this season and came through 39 times.
  • Offensively, the Timberwolves are the 18th-ranked squad in the NBA (113 points per game). On defense, they are best (106.5 points conceded per game).

See all available player props for Michael Porter Jr. and other Nuggets players in this matchup and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Rudy Gobert Points Prop: Under 13.5

  • On a per-game basis, Rudy Gobert gives the Timberwolves 14.0 points, 12.9 rebounds and 1.3 assists. He also averages 0.7 steals and 2.1 blocked shots (sixth in league).
  • Saturday’s points prop bet for Gobert is 13.5 points. That is 0.5 fewer than his season average of 14.0.
  • He has gone up against a points prop bet in 81 games this season, and he’s hit the over 40 times.
  • The Nuggets are 14th in the NBA with 114.9 points per game so far this season. At the other end, they rank sixth with 109.6 points allowed per contest.

Check out the prop bets available for Rudy Gobert and other Timberwolves players in this matchup and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.

All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.

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