The Indiana Pacers take a 3-2 series lead into a decisive Game 6 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The Pacers enter the matchup as favorites by 5.5 points for the game, which airs on TNT at 6:30 PM ET. The matchup’s point total is 217.
Check out below for the best bets you can place on Thursday’s game, based on our computer predictions.
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Spread: Bucks (+5.5) to Cover
- The spread for this game suggested by the model (4.3 points) is a little bit less than the 5.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Pacers, though the data still has them as the favorite.
- Milwaukee’s ATS record is 35-46-1 this year.
- The Bucks have covered the spread twice this year (2-3 ATS) when playing as at least 5.5-point underdogs.
- Indiana is 44-35-3 against the spread this season.
- The Pacers have covered the spread 13 times this season (13-11-1 ATS) when playing as at least 5.5-point favorites.
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Total: Over 217
- The model predicts a total (238.5 points) much higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game (217 points). Take the over.
- Indiana and its opponent have broken the 217-point mark 75 times this year.
- Milwaukee’s games have finished with over 217 points scored 66 times this season.
- Pacers games have hit the over 42 out of 82 times this season.
- The Bucks and their opponents have combined to hit the over 41 out of 82 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: Pacers (-225)
- Prediction: Pacers 121, Bucks 117
- This season, Indiana has won 27 out of the 44 games, or 61.4%, in which it has been favored.
- Milwaukee has been an underdog in 15 games this season and has come away with the win four times (26.7%) in those contests.
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Pascal Siakam Points Prop: Over 22.5
- Pascal Siakam posts 21.7 points, 7.1 boards and 4.3 assists per contest, shooting 53.6% from the field and 34.6% from beyond the arc with 1.1 made treys per contest.
- The 21.7 points Siakam has scored per game this season is 0.8 fewer than his prop bet over/under set for Thursday (22.5).
- Siakam is 35-for-82 at hitting the over on his points prop total this season.
- In 2023-24, the Bucks are fourth-best in the league offensively (119.0 points scored per game) and ranked 21st defensively (116.4 points conceded).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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