Celtics vs. Heat Predictions & Best Bets: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under and Props | Game 5

Written By PlayPicks Staff on April 30, 2024

The Boston Celtics are favored by 14 points ahead of a decisive Game 5 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs against the Miami Heat at TD Garden on Wednesday, starting at 7:30 PM ET on TNT. The Celtics are ahead 3-1 in the series. The over/under is set at 200.5 in the matchup.

Dive into the best bets available (based on our computer predictions) for Wednesday’s game, before you place an informed wager on the matchup.

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Spread: Celtics (-14) to Cover

  • The DraftKings line for this matchup is within 0.5 points of the model. Stay away from this one.
  • Boston has a 42-36-4 record against the spread this season.
  • The Celtics have an ATS record of 8-5 when playing as at least 14-point favorites this season.
  • Miami is 40-39-3 against the spread this year.

Think the Celtics will cover? Sign up and bet with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Total: Over 200.5

  • In this game, the model projects a total (222.9 points) substantially higher than the DraftKings over/under (200.5 points). Bet on the over.
  • A total of 80 times so far this season, Boston and its opponent have combined for more than 200.5 points.
  • There have been 70 Miami’s games this year with more than 200.5 points scored.
  • In the Celtics’ 82 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 43 times.
  • So far this season, 35 out of the Heat’s 82 games with an over/under have hit the over.

Will this matchup go over the total? Check out DraftKings Sportsbook for the latest odds and to get the best signup offer using our link!

Moneyline Winner: Celtics (-1050)

  • Prediction: Celtics 119, Heat 104
  • Boston has won 63, or 79.7%, of the 79 games it has played as the favorite this season.
  • Miami has been an underdog in 35 games this season and has come away with the win 11 times (31.4%) in those contests.

Which team do you think will take home the win? Sign up for DraftKings Sportsbook and make your pick!

Jaylen Brown Points Prop: Under 23.5

  • Jaylen Brown posts 23.0 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 1.2 steals and 0.5 blocks.
  • Brown’s 23.0-point scoring average is 0.5 less than Wednesday’s prop total.
  • Brown has had 77 chances to hit the over on a point prop this season and came through 38 times.
  • In 2023-24, the Heat are fifth-worst in the league on offense (110.1 points scored per game) but third-best on defense (108.4 points conceded).

See all available player props for Jaylen Brown and other Celtics players in this game and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bam Adebayo Points Prop: Under 21.5

  • On a per-game basis, Bam Adebayo gets the Heat 19.3 points, 10.4 rebounds and 3.9 assists. He also averages 1.1 steals and 0.9 blocked shots.
  • Adebayo’s 19.3 points per game are 2.2 less than Wednesday’s over/under.
  • Adebayo has hit the over on his points prop on 32 occasions this season (in 73 games with such a prop).
  • Things are clicking for the Celtics, who are scoring 120.6 points per game (second-best in NBA) and allowing 109.2 points per contest (fifth-best).

Check out the prop bets available for Bam Adebayo and other Heat players in this game and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.

All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.

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