The New York Knicks bring a 3-1 series record into a decisive Game 5 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs. The Knicks enter the matchup as favorites by 4 points for the game, which airs on TNT at 7:00 PM ET. The matchup has an over/under of 203.5 points.
Our computer predictions for Tuesday’s game will help you make an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Knicks (-4) to Cover
- The model projects the Knicks to win, just as DraftKings does, but the model favors them by a small margin more (6.3 to 4).
- New York has a 43-36-3 record against the spread this season.
- The Knicks have been favored by 4 points or more 34 times this season, and covered the spread in 19 of those contests.
- Philadelphia’s ATS record is 48-34-0 this year.
- The 76ers have covered the spread 11 times this year (11-8 ATS) when playing as at least 4-point underdogs.
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Total: Over 203.5
- The model projects a total (222.9 points) much higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup (203.5 points). Take the over.
- In 68 games this year, New York and its opponent have combined for more than 203.5 points.
- Philadelphia’s games have had over 203.5 points 73 times this season.
- Knicks games have hit the over 37 out of 82 times this season.
- So far this season, 43 out of the 76ers’ 82 games with an over/under have hit the over.
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Moneyline Winner: Knicks (-175)
- Prediction: Knicks 115, 76ers 108
- New York has entered the game as favorites 47 times this season and won 36, or 76.6%, of those games.
- Philadelphia has been victorious in nine, or 28.1%, of the 32 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.
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Josh Hart Points Prop: Under 14.5
- Josh Hart averages 9.4 points, 4.1 assists and 8.3 rebounds per contest.
- The 14.5-point over/under set for Hart on Tuesday is 5.1 higher than his season scoring average.
- This season, Hart has scored beyond the points prop number in 28 of 70 games with a set total.
- On offense the 76ers are the 15th-ranked team in the league (114.6 points per game). Defensively they are ninth (111.5 points allowed per game).
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Joel Embiid Points Prop: Under 32.5
- Joel Embiid is putting up 34.7 points, 11.0 rebounds and 5.6 assists per contest. He’s making 52.9% of his shots from the floor and 38.8% from 3-point range, with 1.4 triples per contest.
- Embiid has averaged 34.7 points per game during the 2023-24 season, 2.2 points more than Tuesday’s over/under.
- He has hit the over 24 times on a points prop this season (in 46 tries).
- The Knicks have been led by their defense, as they rank second-best in the NBA by allowing only 108.2 points per game. They rank 19th in the league in points scored (112.8 per contest).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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